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Fdkn
Member
(04-21-2017, 11:29 AM)
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Originally Posted by bombshell


That one is the NPD revenue based retail (+digital in some cases) ranking.

My mistake but it's the same anyway

That ranking has Wildlands digital but no Horizon digital, and the March PSN rankings doesn't have all the Horizon data as it was also 2nd in February, so it could really be higher than Wildlands overall.
Achtung Englander
NPD Industry Analyst, US Video Games
Don't ask me for numbers.
(04-21-2017, 11:30 AM)
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Originally Posted by addik

Hi, Achtung! I hope quoting this would help you see my question when you log in.

I was wondering how Nier: Automata did compared to Nier 1's first week sales? I don't believe we have had any data on that.

Automata did very well compared to Nier 1
GhostTrick
Member
(04-21-2017, 11:30 AM)
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Originally Posted by Psycho_Mantis

Lmao PC physical. Just take the L and move on mate. You (expectedly) thought the PS4 SKU could not sell magnitudes better than the PC SKU. You were wrong.



You're aware that, according to the OP, it includes digital ?
And no, I never said PS4 sku wouldnt sell better than PC sku, obviously, thanks to Japan and Asia. That never was my point. Unless you have a post to prove that ?
Why do you need to be passively agressive ?
Taking the L ? Mate ? You know, it's not because Japanese games can do well on PC/Steam that they'll disappear from PS4. :")


Edit: It's not because people gives you fact that you must believe they're "against" you or doing some console war bullshit.
Last edited by GhostTrick; 04-21-2017 at 11:33 AM.
Mpl90
Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
(04-21-2017, 11:30 AM)
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Originally Posted by Achtung Englander

My name is Sam Naji not Nagini and why should I get fired ?. Numbers are numbers are numbers. NPD does not take sides, we just report on the business impartially.

Nono, Nagiani, you just diminished his own fate in humanity. That's enough to get fired on the spot here on GAF. Now pack your stuff up and leave your desk clean, Nagiuno.
Jawbreaker
Member
(04-21-2017, 11:31 AM)
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Originally Posted by LordOcidax

Ok, thanks. Looks like the above 1M is unconfirmed then.

Whatever helps you sleep at night, I guess. Just don't take Harker's posts at face value when they confirm your biases in the future.
bombshell
Member
(04-21-2017, 11:31 AM)
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Originally Posted by Fdkn

My mistake but it's the same anyway

That ranking has Wildlands digital but no Horizon digital, and the March PSN rankings doesn't have all the Horizon data as it was also 2nd in February, so it could really be higher than Wildlands overall.

Agreed.
Kysen
Member
(04-21-2017, 11:31 AM)
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What I find incredible is how Switch was carried by one outstanding game. Talk about a system seller. I won't be touching the console till either MH or JP 3rd party get on board (vita stalwarts).
Chobel
I shouldn't make bets because every time I do my tag gets worse
(04-21-2017, 11:32 AM)
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Originally Posted by Psycho_Mantis

Lmao PC physical. Just take the L and move on mate. You (expectedly) thought the PS4 SKU could not sell magnitudes better than the PC SKU. You were wrong.

Since "9. Nier: Automata (Square Enix)" doesn't have any form of asterisk in the press release, it most likely includes digital sales from Steam. Though PS4 version selling much more than PC version is not up to debate.
Achtung Englander
NPD Industry Analyst, US Video Games
Don't ask me for numbers.
(04-21-2017, 11:33 AM)
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Originally Posted by Zedark

Square Enix does participate in the digital tracking program for NPD, so digital Steam sales are included I believe.

correct
Charamiwa
Member
(04-21-2017, 11:33 AM)
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Horizon sold more than a million, an incredible performance for a new IP.

Zelda sold literally everything it could on the Switch, and then some. People like the game and it should sell more as more Switch enter the market.

It's official, both game win, and I hereby declare the rivalry officially over.
GhostTrick
Member
(04-21-2017, 11:34 AM)
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Originally Posted by Chobel

Since "9. Nier: Automata (Square Enix)" doesn't have any form of asterisk in the press release, it most likely includes digital sales from Steam. Though PS4 version selling much more than PC version is not up to debate.


Yeah, but better "LMAO DUDE TAKE THE L LOL" instead of actually reading the thread.
Loris146
Member
(04-21-2017, 11:34 AM)
You can check steamspy for Nier PC ( estimated) sales. There should be a specific page for USA sales.
LordOcidax
Member
(04-21-2017, 11:34 AM)
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Originally Posted by Jawbreaker

Whatever helps you sleep at night, I guees. Just don't take Harker's posts at face value when they confirm your biases in the future.

I asked to the NPD guy for confirmation.. he cant confirm because the rules... Why is this biased?.. really?
hydrophilic attack
(04-21-2017, 11:34 AM)
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So happy to see Nier do so well
Fdkn
Member
(04-21-2017, 11:36 AM)
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Originally Posted by Loris146

You can check steamspy for Nier PC ( estimated) sales. There should be a specific page for USA sales.

~77k right now
Sjefen
Member
(04-21-2017, 11:36 AM)
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Great games great sales: Horizon, Persona 5 and Nier will keep selling. The word of mouth is strong with these games.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
(04-21-2017, 11:37 AM)

Originally Posted by LordOcidax

I asked to the NPD guy for confirmation.. he cant confirm because the rules... Why is this biased?.. really?

You asked for something that you knew you would not get. Did you really think he could or would give you information that Sony doesn't make available?
Psycho_Mantis
Member
(04-21-2017, 11:40 AM)
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Originally Posted by Zedark

Square Enix does participate in the digital tracking program for NPD, so digital Steam sales are included I believe.

Oh wow didn't know NPD do that now. Does Steam give regional breakdowns?

EDIT: read above posts

Originally Posted by GhostTrick

You're aware that, according to the OP, it includes digital ?
And no, I never said PS4 sku wouldnt sell better than PC sku, obviously, thanks to Japan and Asia. That never was my point. Unless you have a post to prove that ?
Why do you need to be passively agressive ?
Taking the L ? Mate ? You know, it's not because Japanese games can do well on PC/Steam that they'll disappear from PS4. :")

I wasn't but now am. Nevertheless you're looking at near 450k on PS4 from JP and US. Pretty easy to imagine it being close to 700-800k WW.

Please, you spent the entirety of the previous thread getting upset that shipped =/ sold, and while that is very much true, you missed the entire point of the sell through being close to the shipment from the data we've had so far on PS4.
LordOcidax
Member
(04-21-2017, 11:41 AM)
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Originally Posted by StrongBlackVine

You asked for something that you knew you would not get. Did you really think he could give you information that Sony doesn't make available?

Ok...
sphinx
the piano man
(04-21-2017, 11:44 AM)
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Originally Posted by Achtung Englander

OK thank you guys

I will be logging in tomorrow to answer any more questions

I live in the UK and I am going to bed as it is 1:15am my time.

Have a great day and happy gaming !

hi there and thanks for the answer to my first question :)

Also, I was meaning to ask...

we had a Bloommberg report claiming this is a Wii-Like event. some people here were of course sceptical.

so the question is: are we seeing a product with potential to sell around 5~8 million units in its first 12 months in the Northamerican market alone?

NDP has Wii at 8.85 million after 12 months, but that includes two Q4s so maybe we are looking at something like 6 million when we get March 2018 NPD numbers?

in your opinion and those of the NPD theam, do you believe the Switch's future points at a Wii/PS2/PS4 scenario?

EDIT: wrong NPD NA numbers
Last edited by sphinx; 04-21-2017 at 11:49 AM.
freefornow
Junior Member
(04-21-2017, 11:47 AM)
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Originally Posted by Sjefen

Great games great sales: Horizon, Persona 5 and Nier will keep selling. The word of mouth is strong with these games.

I'm not convinced that Persona and Nier will be in top 20 next month.
OrbitalBeard
Member
(04-21-2017, 11:48 AM)
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Originally Posted by freefornow

I'm not convinced that Persona and Nier will be in top 20 next month.

Persona not making the top 20 in April would be pretty shocking.
GhostTrick
Member
(04-21-2017, 11:49 AM)
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Originally Posted by Psycho_Mantis

Oh wow didn't know NPD do that now. Does Steam give regional breakdowns?

EDIT: read above posts



I wasn't but now am. Nevertheless you're looking at near 450k on PS4 from JP and US. Pretty easy to imagine it being close to 700-800k WW.

Please, you spent the entirety of the previous thread getting upset that shipped =/ sold, and while that is very much true, you missed the entire point of the sell through being close to the shipment from the data we've had so far on PS4.


Nah, you're the upset person here. Just because I dared to told you that you're comparing oranges and apples here since:

1) Steamspy number are sold directly/activated and can be lower than actual numbers

2) Square Enix numbers included digital + shipped physical copies (PS4/PC even thought I said in that thread I doubt the PC physical shipment represents more than 10k)

And you jumped at me at this very thread for telling you these are PS4+PC numbers, that may also include digital.

Wow, I must be a pretty upset person just for stating facts. :")

See, you even started to lower your own numbers. Then again no one's denying PS4 sales are higher, people just told you "You're right, although your comparison doesnt allow to get specific numbers yet".
Chobel
I shouldn't make bets because every time I do my tag gets worse
(04-21-2017, 11:49 AM)
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Originally Posted by Achtung Englander

My name is Sam Naji not Nagini and why should I get fired ?. Numbers are numbers are numbers. NPD does not take sides, we just report on the business impartially.

Hey Sam. I noticed that most (all?) publishers who have their own webstores don't share the digital sales of their platforms even though they share console digital sales. I'm talking about this

** No Origin, Battle.net, uPlay, or non-Steam sales

Why is that? Or more precisely, what's the difference between sharing console digital sales and sharing your own platform digital sales?
KillerMan91
Member
(04-21-2017, 11:50 AM)
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Zelda having only 3% digital ratio is kinda crazy compared to industry average. Seems like Nintendo is still way behind in digital adoption. Doesn't help that they release systems with puny amount of storage out of the box.
Loris146
Member
(04-21-2017, 11:51 AM)

Originally Posted by freefornow

I'm not convinced that Persona and Nier will be in top 20 next month.

Persona is going to be in top 10.
OrbitalBeard
Member
(04-21-2017, 11:52 AM)
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Originally Posted by KillerMan91

Zelda having only 3% digital ratio is kinda crazy compared to industry average. Seems like Nintendo is still way behind in digital adoption. Doesn't help that they release systems with puny amount of storage out of the box.

A lot of people were probably unsure of how the Switch eShop would function at launch, so they bought a physical copy to be safe. Digital sales will likely improve as the year progresses.
LordOcidax
Member
(04-21-2017, 11:53 AM)
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Originally Posted by KillerMan91

Zelda having only 3% digital ratio is kinda crazy compared to industry average. Seems like Nintendo is still way behind in digital adoption. Doesn't help that they release systems with puny amount of storage out of the box.

The majority of people preordered the Switch+Zelda. Nothing crazy here.
ArkhamFantasy
Member
(04-21-2017, 11:53 AM)
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Nier made it in the top 10 with 1 million WW sales after 4 weeks at retail (700k outside of Japan) in a ridiculously strong march

Persona 5 was at 1.5 million day 1, (1 million outside of Japan) in a much weaker april. It's going to be in the top 10.

Nioh was also able to make it in the top 10 with a million sales WW (800k outside of japan).
frankie_baby
Member
(04-21-2017, 11:55 AM)

Originally Posted by KillerMan91

Zelda having only 3% digital ratio is kinda crazy compared to industry average. Seems like Nintendo is still way behind in digital adoption. Doesn't help that they release systems with puny amount of storage out of the box.

Nintendo's numbers suggest it has a much higher digital ratio on Wii U so other factors relating to the switch being a brand new system are probably the reason for its unusually low digital ratio on switch
Guymelef
Banned
(04-21-2017, 11:57 AM)

Originally Posted by LordOcidax

Ok, thanks. Looks like the above 1M is unconfirmed then.

Trying too hard.
Gotdatmoney
Member
(04-21-2017, 11:57 AM)

Originally Posted by KillerMan91

Zelda having only 3% digital ratio is kinda crazy compared to industry average. Seems like Nintendo is still way behind in digital adoption. Doesn't help that they release systems with puny amount of storage out of the box.

Eh, the WiiU had digital sales floating in the 10-15% range from Nintendo press releases vs insider info. With the Switch I just imagine its new systen = heavy physical slant. I imagine it'll return to or above WiiU levels with time.

As a side note. Holy moly at Horizon. That's amazing.
megaStryke
Junior Member
(04-21-2017, 12:00 PM)
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Originally Posted by KillerMan91

Zelda having only 3% digital ratio is kinda crazy compared to industry average. Seems like Nintendo is still way behind in digital adoption. Doesn't help that they release systems with puny amount of storage out of the box.

In any case, why would the digital ratio be high to begin with? The number of physical copies of BotW sold to units of Switch sold are very nearly 1:1.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
(04-21-2017, 12:04 PM)
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Originally Posted by Behlel

That's revenue chart and it doesn't include digital, if you put digital In probably it can be higher than zelda or very near.

No it won't your forgetting about the wii u version.
OfficerRaichu15
Member
(04-21-2017, 12:06 PM)
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Originally Posted by Achtung Englander

correct

So is there a chance you can confirm if Bomberman is 100k plus?
Not exact but knowing it's range would be nice!
If you can't that's find too and thanks for taking your time answering questions. :)
Exterminieren
on the brink of disasrer
(04-21-2017, 12:06 PM)
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If we're talking potential 2018 Switch games, they're speeding up this Pokémon generation's promotion cycle to the extent that I could honestly see a whole new set of games in 2018, as well as Stars this year.
SinCityAssassin
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(04-21-2017, 12:07 PM)
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Originally Posted by KillerMan91

Zelda having only 3% digital ratio is kinda crazy compared to industry average. Seems like Nintendo is still way behind in digital adoption. Doesn't help that they release systems with puny amount of storage out of the box.

You have a brand new system. You have a brand new Zelda. You cannot preload Zelda because that system hasn't been sold to you. You choose instead to buy a physical cartridge along with your purchase so you can play the game near immediately. For nostalgia points, it's also a brand new console zelda on a cartridge.

Wii U digital adoption had been growing year over year until they went full speed with Switch. I don't see why you'd assume they're be behind again. Especially with an actual account system now.
Triggerhappytel
Member
(04-21-2017, 12:07 PM)
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Originally Posted by Achtung Englander

My name is Sam Naji not Nagini and why should I get fired ?. Numbers are numbers are numbers. NPD does not take sides, we just report on the business impartially.

Just ignore him. Most of really appreciate the input of people such as yourself and John Harker. We realise that your hands are tied on specifics though.

Originally Posted by OrbitalBeard

Persona not making the top 20 in April would be pretty shocking.

It's had extreme stock shortages here in the UK. How about in North America?
Zedark
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(04-21-2017, 12:09 PM)
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Originally Posted by Triggerhappytel

Just ignore him. Most of really appreciate the input of people such as yourself and John Harker. We realise that your hands are tied on specifics though.


It's had extreme stock shortages here in the UK. How about in North America?

Even then it will sell hundreds of thousands of copies, and will probably land in top 5.
Last edited by Zedark; 04-21-2017 at 12:11 PM.
KillerMan91
Member
(04-21-2017, 12:12 PM)
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Good points about launch probably affecting digital ratio. Still though even at 10-15% that Nintendo had with WiiU they were way behind industry average. Maybe this will change with Switch in long run. I guess we will see.
LordOcidax
Member
(04-21-2017, 12:12 PM)
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Originally Posted by Guymelef

Trying too hard.

Why some of you are salty because my question? I just asked for confirmation nothing more. Also the fact is that Zelda sold more than Horizon digital+retail in March when a lot of people said that because of the install base of the PS4 and the marketing push of Sony, Zelda had 0% chance (New console + a death one) against Horizon.
Psycho_Mantis
Member
(04-21-2017, 12:20 PM)
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Originally Posted by GhostTrick

Nah, you're the upset person here. Just because I dared to told you that you're comparing oranges and apples here since:

1) Steamspy number are sold directly/activated and can be lower than actual numbers

2) Square Enix numbers included digital + shipped physical copies (PS4/PC even thought I said in that thread I doubt the PC physical shipment represents more than 10k)

And you jumped at me at this very thread for telling you these are PS4+PC numbers, that may also include digital.

Wow, I must be a pretty upset person just for stating facts. :")

See, you even started to lower your own numbers. Then again no one's denying PS4 sales are higher, people just told you "You're right, although your comparison doesnt allow to get specific numbers yet".

The denial lmao
I'll break it down for you:

PS4 JP - 300k (inc digital) sold
PS4 NPD - approx 150k (inc digital) (200k - 50k (PC sales, poster said 77k was Nier's LTD in USA atm)) sold

Ain't hard to see another 300k from EU and rest of Asia with digital hence PS4 Nier being 700-800k sold. I repeat sold. Nier PC = 220k sold at the time of that report.

Everyone knows the shipment is 1 million in total. There will no doubt be further shipments considering sell through is so close. The only fact you seem to repeat is one everyone is aware of.
Last edited by Psycho_Mantis; 04-21-2017 at 12:23 PM.
GhostTrick
Member
(04-21-2017, 12:25 PM)
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Originally Posted by Psycho_Mantis

The denial lmao
I'll break it down for you:

PS4 JP - 300k (inc digital) sold
PS4 NPD - approx 150k (inc digital) (200k - 50k (PC sales, poster said 77k was Nier's LTD in USA atm)) sold

Ain't hard to see another 300k from EU and rest of Asia with digital hence PS4 Nier being 700-800k sold. I repeat sold.

Everyone knows the shipment is 1 million in total. There will no doubt be further shipments considering sell through is so close. The only fact you seem to repeat is one everyone is aware of.


What denial ?
Where did I denied something ? I just to'd you that current information doesnt allow to make a precise breakdown.
To the point you even revised your own numbers from a sure 800k to a now "700k~800k"
Heck, you had to review your own words three times !
First claiming these sales are PS4 physical only, then PS4+PC physical then both SKU included.

You have some crazy, personal vendetta going on here just because I dared to question your numbers. What's wrong with you ? :")

The only thing I'm telling you is you're extrapolating numbers without enough datas, mixing stuff that shouldn't be.
(Btw, USA sales represents 31.14% of the Steam sales of Nier Automata. Even if you go down to 220k, that'd be 68k, not 50k).
Last edited by GhostTrick; 04-21-2017 at 12:31 PM.
Achtung Englander
NPD Industry Analyst, US Video Games
Don't ask me for numbers.
(04-21-2017, 12:28 PM)
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Originally Posted by Chobel

Hey Sam. I noticed that most (all?) publishers who have their own webstores don't share the digital sales of their platforms even though they share console digital sales. I'm talking about this


Why is that? Or more precisely, what's the difference between sharing console digital sales and sharing your own platform digital sales?

most likely due to exposure. Steam is a 3rd party client (store) whereas Origin and Uplay are publisher stores and so obviously EA and Ubisoft do not wish to divulge more information to a competitor than they need to especially if reciprocal data is not forthcoming
Dash Kappei
Not actually that important
(04-21-2017, 12:29 PM)
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Originally Posted by JonnyDBrit

Definitely. Makes me curious what will happen if/when there's a sequel. Will it actually retain the audience, or fail because of not being a launch title?

The fact that it even seems plausible is cool though.

Also, the game is afoot for the Switch.

It's a perfect launch title.
Next one should heavily focus on online/local multiplayer as a digital only budget title ($19), multiplatform, maybe even do a mash up with some other IP a la Puyo Tetris, can't see another game selling decently otherwise.

Namco dropped the ball not releasing Ridge Racer Switch.
Dash Kappei
Not actually that important
(04-21-2017, 12:34 PM)
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Originally Posted by freefornow

I'm not convinced that Persona and Nier will be in top 20 next month.

Is this for real? Persona 5 not making the top20, is this some kind of bait I'm not seeing through?
Achtung Englander
NPD Industry Analyst, US Video Games
Don't ask me for numbers.
(04-21-2017, 12:37 PM)
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Originally Posted by sphinx

hi there and thanks for the answer to my first question :)

Also, I was meaning to ask...

we had a Bloommberg report claiming this is a Wii-Like event. some people here were of course sceptical.

so the question is: are we seeing a product with potential to sell around 5~8 million units in its first 12 months in the Northamerican market alone?

NDP has Wii at 8.85 million after 12 months, but that includes two Q4s so maybe we are looking at something like 6 million when we get March 2018 NPD numbers?

in your opinion and those of the NPD theam, do you believe the Switch's future points at a Wii/PS2/PS4 scenario?

EDIT: wrong NPD NA numbers

Our forecast for the Switch is that it will do very well but the definition of very well has changed compared to previous generations.

The PS2 and the Wii were of a different age and these consoles bottled lightening. They released at the right time and captured the market either due to less competition or innovation.

The consumers today are in a totally different space compared to 10 years ago and as a consequence of the shift in expectations console forecast sales are based on the reality of the situation today as opposed to what happened in the past (which was another country).

Consumers today have more choice than ever before and we must take this into account when looking at whether something is a success.
Zedark
Member
(04-21-2017, 12:37 PM)
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Originally Posted by Dash Kappei

Is this for real? Persona 5 not making the top20, is this some kind of bait I'm not seeing through?

I think he mistakingly thought Persona 5 launch was this month rather than next month NPD somehow, otherwise I can't fathom the denial.
hanspampel
Member
(04-21-2017, 12:37 PM)
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Originally Posted by KillerMan91

Zelda having only 3% digital ratio is kinda crazy compared to industry average. Seems like Nintendo is still way behind in digital adoption. Doesn't help that they release systems with puny amount of storage out of the box.

Switch is also a new Platform.
When you launch a new Console / Platform and people go into a store to buy the console, they're more inclined to buy the game they want for, too

this is the second reason, why digital for Zelda is so low


edit: beaten

Originally Posted by SinCityAssassin

You have a brand new system. You have a brand new Zelda. You cannot preload Zelda because that system hasn't been sold to you. You choose instead to buy a physical cartridge along with your purchase so you can play the game near immediately. For nostalgia points, it's also a brand new console zelda on a cartridge.

Wii U digital adoption had been growing year over year until they went full speed with Switch. I don't see why you'd assume they're be behind again. Especially with an actual account system now.

Achtung Englander
NPD Industry Analyst, US Video Games
Don't ask me for numbers.
(04-21-2017, 12:39 PM)
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Originally Posted by OfficerRaichu15

So is there a chance you can confirm if Bomberman is 100k plus?
Not exact but knowing it's range would be nice!
If you can't that's find too and thanks for taking your time answering questions. :)

nice try but I cannot say.

Mat and I cannot divulge numbers as we are under contract not do so. NPD data shared here is at the goodwill of the publishers.

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