Originally Posted by hey_monkey
ttk, are you gonna answer my question about Palmer?
Sorry, I missed it originally.
I think Palmer's claim of being vanilla is bullshit. I do think he's town, though, and has wisely decided to (relatively) quiet down. But he's one of many in a long line of "I'm not worth killing, I swear!" claims. There's no way to believe them all.
While you're at it... Please explain to me why as scum I would start the day in a way that almost certainly leads to my scum partner being killed. So much so that I had a prepared post ready to go. In what universe does it make sense for us to spend a whole night phase planning this knowing there is almost certainly a real cop out there who could check any one of us. Scum's roleblocker is dead. Town is and has already been fractured along party lines. Of all the strategies, why would THIS one be the way? If Swamped, Blarg, Sky, and I are the scum team planning this, why wouldn't I be the sacrifice? Blarg is obviously great at arguing. People already like to ignore me or read me as scum for reasons. So why am I not the fake red check who then claims as neutral but is secret scum?
I thought this was already obvious, but:
- Blarg was already the primary target heading into D3. Fighting the tide would put more of you in danger. It made sense to try and bus him straight away.
- By sacrificing Blarg, and combined with Sky's "you better not lynch me OR ELSE" claim, and you BACKING his claim, you essentially make yourselves the two towniest motherfuckers around.
- Meanwhile you're also making an argument for both of you to not only not be lynched, but you've created a plausible reason as to why you wouldn't be killed during the night, either.
To be totally honest, I think it's a genius plan.
Originally Posted by hey_monkey
If ttk and Isaac - two people who were already suspect - manage to pull this off, I hope y'all lynch the shit out of them when I flip town cop. OH WAIT then you also have to maybe shelve Blarg and you get a repeat of Arkham.
If you are lynched and you're not lying, we lose one whole fucking day, but your info is confirmed, we can trust Sky 100% and Blarg gets turbo'd the next day.
Come on monkey, I know you're not dumb. You understand why I'm making this argument.
Originally Posted by SkyOdin
You know, your worst case could just be avoided by maintaining a healthy level of skepticism regarding me and hey_monkey. It is good to consider a wide range of possibilities, but tunneling too hard on a single possibility is bad.
I think there are several possibilities I'm considering, and the way to stop them from getting out of control is vetting monkey, who again I don't even think is scum (although her resistance to being vetted for the good of town despite being essentially vanilla at this point is making me suspicious).
I understand what you are afraid of. In mini-mafia, I lost the game for town because I accepted flame_AC as confirmed town and let that cloud my decision making. However, that only became a game-ending mistake because I carried that perception into Lylo, not because we rode the bus to lynch scum.
This gets to my main point, which is my own level of skepticism is obviously not shared by the rest of town, who apparently already think monkey's word is as good as gold. With this being a role madness game, there's no way we will lynch monkey (or you) because monkey will probably be vanilla and we'll need to focus on remaining power roles at that time, and obviously you either because the threat of two straight nights is way too dangerous, and only becomes MORE dangerous the later the game goes.
Typically though, scum don't kill other scum unless there is no other option. Scum team members are incredibly valuable. Each scum lost is a big blow to their team. As such, most of the time, scum take an simple approach: attack each other to appear at odds and not look like teammates earlier, but then back off before the heat gets bad enough to become a real lynch.
I mean, I guess, but having only played one game of Mafia before, I bussed a scummate pretty hard pretty early on and I ended up winning the game. I know how powerful setting yourself up as a trusted townie can be. There were always one or two people suspicious of me after that, but never enough people in town to get rid of me.
All I can go on is how I would play this if I were scum. And right now if I was a scum hey_monkey I would be doing these exact same moves.
However in that case, going through with lynching scum was absolutely the correct move. It killed scum. The only reason it lead to a lose was because we let our guard down. If you think hey_monkey is scum, then just don't let your guard down on subsequent days.
See above. My own personal skepticism isn't enough. It's a town effort.
Originally Posted by Dr. Worm
lynching scum >>>>>>>>>>>>>> "townie points"
there is literally no reason why we can't still keep whatifing and throwing shade at hey_monkey tomorrow anyway if we wanted
This is naive. If Blarg flips scum, hey_monkey will literally never be in danger of a lynch ever again, nor will SkyOdin. 1000%.