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kswiston
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(05-19-2017, 06:50 AM)
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Prometheus earned $3.6M from previews, back when those actually started at Midnight.

Given the growth in preview showing among mid-level earners, Alien Covenant will be in trouble if it doesn't at least hit that ballpark.
Bobby Roberts
Lore Expert
(05-19-2017, 06:51 AM)
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What would it need to make in order for the 38-40mil opening to stay on target?
duckroll
mashadar's Nekomimi slave
(05-19-2017, 06:52 AM)
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I've been meaning to ask this for a long time now but what's with international releases seemingly getting ahead of US releases increasingly? I started to notice this about Marvel films a few years back, but it seems to have extended to various other Disney films, and even Alien now. What exactly is the strategy here?
kswiston
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(05-19-2017, 06:54 AM)
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Originally Posted by Bobby Roberts

What would it need to make in order for the 38-40mil opening to stay on target?

It's hard to say, since Alien has an established fanbase.

Power Rangers made $3.6M on Thursday, going into a $40M weekend. The demographics are different here, but I think that $3.5-4M would give it a shot at that range. Unless Alien fans are particularly dedicated.

Originally Posted by duckroll

I've been meaning to ask this for a long time now but what's with international releases seemingly getting ahead of US releases increasingly? I started to notice this about Marvel films a few years back, but it seems to have extended to various other Disney films, and even Alien now. What exactly is the strategy here?

It's a combination of wanting to get ahead of piracy and avoiding bigger Hollywood and foreign releases. They used to just delay films overseas if something else was in the way, but now people are streaming cam copies on their computers or cheap android boxes within days of opening. That doesn't matter too much for domestic grosses, but it can put a dent in places like Russia.
Last edited by kswiston; 05-19-2017 at 06:58 AM.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
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(05-19-2017, 07:23 AM)
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Well, I'm pretty tired and procrastinated on this too much, so I'm just going to present my predictions without much in the way of comments. I swear I'll do the big ole' right-up for Pirates and possibly Baywatch.

Code:

Alien: Covenant
Pre:   $5.1M
Fri   $11.7M/$16.8M
Sat:  $13.6M          +16.24%/-19.05%
Sun:   $9.6M          -29.41%

OW:   $34.9M/$40.0M
2nd:  $15.8M          -54.73%/-60.50%
3rd:   $6.3M          -60.13%
4th:   $3.1M

DOM:    $90M
INT:   $200M
WW:    $290M
  • The film has done pretty well tonight, form what I've seen, so I do think it will do better than I was predicting earlier this week. I do feel like a bit of a cop-out by predicting $40M on the nose, though.
  • I'm going big on the previews tonight, but a fairly frontloaded OD for this time of year. Prometheus made $3.6M from midnights back in 2012, and this film started playing at 7PM. While Prometheus did release in mid-June when fewer schools were in session, Alien: Covenant appears to be having previews in the vast majority of its theaters while Prometheus played at midnight in only 1,368 locations. An example of the difference the start time can make is X-men Apocalypse (7PM) vs X-men Days of Future Past (10PM): virtual identical preview number, but the former's OD down about 25%.
  • From there, I'm expecting the film to crater. It's a pretty nasty, cynical piece of work, and also gets real weird on occasion. Competition is also very fierce, with two openers next week potentially combining for over $120M, and then a similar scenario the next week. I'm not giving it quite Godzilla legs, but pretty close.

Code:

The Leftovers
2) Guardians of the Galaxy 2   $34.8M     -46.63%
3) Everything, Everything       $9.8M
4) Snatched                     $8.5M     -56.50%
5) Diary of a Wimpy Kid         $8.3M
6) King Arthur                  $6.9M     -55.11%
7) The Fate of the Furious      $3.2M     -40.74%
8) Beauty and the Beast         $3.1M     -35.55%
9) The Boss Baby                $2.7M     -39.95%
10) How to be a Latin Lover     $1.9M     -50.78%
  • Guardians 2 has continued to perform very well, with week-to-week superior to other recent MCU sequels. Competition is not strong this weekend, but it will lose some IMAX and PLF screens to Alien, and was aided by Mother's Day last weekend.
  • The other openers seem primed to do moderate business, at best. Wimpy Kid is the next installment of an already declining franchise, and this one features a new lead, typically not a great foundation for growth or even staying flat from a predecessor.
  • Most films did benefit from Mother's Day, ranging from extraordinary impact (Snatched) to a moderate bump (Fate of the Furious) in business last Sunday. So I would expect holdovers in general to not hold quite as well as daily numbers are suggesting.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
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(05-19-2017, 03:26 PM)
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Alien: Covenant did $4.2M last night from 3,000 theaters.
kswiston
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(05-19-2017, 03:52 PM)
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Originally Posted by Biggest-Geek-Ever

Alien: Covenant did $4.2M last night from 3,000 theaters.

Not terrible. The film will probably land in the 30s. We'll see if that is the high 30s in a few hours.

Anyone know off the top of their heads what the lowest weekend gross was off of a $4M+ preview take?
Biggest-Geek-Ever
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(05-19-2017, 04:07 PM)
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Originally Posted by kswiston

Not terrible. The film will probably land in the 30s. We'll see if that is the high 30s in a few hours.

Anyone know off the top of their heads what the lowest weekend gross was off of a $4M+ preview take?

Paranormal Activity 4 made $4.5M from previews but only $29M from the weekend. That's the lowest I can find.

Fifty Shades Darker also made $5.72M but only $46.6M for the weekend.
Bobby Roberts
Lore Expert
(05-19-2017, 04:14 PM)
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If this thing clears $100 mil domestic they'll give him the money to do one more, I bet.

And then we'll wait another 5 years and they'll either start over or they'll do what they should have done in the mid-90s: Just turn it into an anthology series.
kswiston
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(05-19-2017, 04:17 PM)
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Originally Posted by Bobby Roberts

If this thing clears $100 mil domestic they'll give him the money to do one more, I bet.

And then we'll wait another 5 years and they'll either start over or they'll do what they should have done in the mid-90s: Just turn it into an anthology series.

I think that $80-90M is more likely. Overseas, China is the big question mark. But Covenant only gets a week before Transformers 5 opens, so it might get GitS legs over there.
PhoncipleBone
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(05-19-2017, 04:23 PM)
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Originally Posted by duckroll

I like elves too. They seem honest.

Originally Posted by Bobby Roberts

They're fictional

How does that explain Jeff Sessions then?

But back on topic, semi decent Thursday for Alien
AndyVirus
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(05-19-2017, 04:27 PM)
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Originally Posted by kswiston

it might get GitS legs over there.

6 sequels here we come!
Bobby Roberts
Lore Expert
(05-19-2017, 04:29 PM)
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Originally Posted by PhoncipleBone

How does that explain Jeff Sessions then?

There's no explanation for that ratfuck sonofabitch

Originally Posted by kswiston

I think that $80-90M is more likely.

Yeah, that makes things way more interesting. Does he say "fuck it" and walk, finally? Or does he agree to a 60-70mil budget and finish out his prequel trilogy with a very, very intimate sequel to Covenant set entirely in spaceship interiors
Biggest-Geek-Ever
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(05-19-2017, 04:35 PM)
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Here's some comps I dug up for Alien

Prometheus - $3.56M (Midnight), 1,368 locations, $51M OW
Mad Max: Fury Road - $3.7M (7PM), ~3,000, $45.4M
Kong Skull Island - $3.7M (7PM), ~3,500, $61.1M
Power Rangers - $3.6M (7PM), ~2,700, $40M
King Arthur - $1.15M (7PM), ~3,200, $15.4M
The Purge - $3.4M (10PM), unknown, $34.1M
Split - $2M (7PM), 2,295, $40M
300: Rise of an Empire - $3.3M, time and number of locations unknown, $45M
Fifty Shades Darker - $5.72M (7PM), 3,710, $46.6M

It's pretty fucking difficult to figure out what a film is going to do from preview grosses, as you can tell. Even though it's a bit lower than what I predicted last night, $40M can certainly still happen.

Everything, Everything made $525K and Wimpy Kid did $150K. I do not know if I care enough to look up comps for them.
Last edited by Biggest-Geek-Ever; 05-19-2017 at 04:51 PM.
LakeEarth
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(05-19-2017, 04:44 PM)
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It's almost as if pumping out shitty Alien movies for decades would be (gasp) detrimental to the health of said franchise! That can't be right...

I'm speaking of all Alien movies BEFORE Covenant, just to be clear.
jon bones
hot hot hanuman-on-man action
(05-19-2017, 04:56 PM)
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will Alien take #1 over GotG?
kswiston
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(05-19-2017, 06:03 PM)
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Originally Posted by jon bones

will Alien take #1 over GotG?

We'll know more about how likely that is in a couple of hours
Biggest-Geek-Ever
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(05-19-2017, 07:44 PM)
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No updates yet, but I did notice that Deadline's header is using the boxart for Alien Colonial Marines: http://deadline.com/2017/05/alien-co...e_preview=true
kswiston
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(05-19-2017, 08:42 PM)
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Deadline is saying $16.5M for Covenant today + previews. Low 40s for the weekend.

They have GotG2 at $8M today and $30M for the weekend, but that seems low.

The other two openers are looking to come in around $10M.
kswiston
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(05-19-2017, 10:15 PM)
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Boxoffice.com updated their long term forecast.

Wonder Woman was bumped up to $93M OW

Captain Underpants was bumped up to $31M OW

The Mummy was dropped to $45M OW

No change for next weeks openers.

War for the Planet of the Apes is new this week with $54M opening weekend and $150M total. That would be pretty disappointing if true.
Last edited by kswiston; 05-19-2017 at 10:21 PM.
FoneBone
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(05-19-2017, 10:16 PM)
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It occurs to me that Fox putting out two wide releases (Alien and Wimpy Kid) on the same day is pretty unusual, even when there's no overlap in their audiences.
Discotheque
Pam Oliver sextape
(05-19-2017, 10:20 PM)
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Originally Posted by kswiston

Boxoffixe.com updated their long term forecast.

Wonder Woman was bumped up to $93M OW

Captain Underpants was bumped up to $31M OW

No change for next weeks openers.

War for the Planet of the Apes is new this week with $54M opening weekend and $150M total. That would be pretty disappointing if true.

Fuuuu that's sad. I hope apes makes more than that. At least around dawn money.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
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(05-19-2017, 10:23 PM)
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Originally Posted by kswiston

War for the Planet of the Apes is new this week with $54M opening weekend and $150M total. That would be pretty disappointing if true.

I've been thinking sub $200M for awhile now, but falling that far below even Rise would be rough. The trailers seem to have not ignited much excitement and if Spider-Man is a monster performer, War's potential could trend down considerably.
What did he mean by this?
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(05-19-2017, 10:23 PM)
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I dont think Dawn was as well received publically as the glowing critical reviews with have you think. It's Jason Clarkes fault of course.

And the marketing for War is unexciting in its bombasity. What happened to the claim that this was thinking mans blockbuster?

"Ape did not start dis war.....but Ape will finish it!"
ugh
3N16MA
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(05-19-2017, 10:28 PM)
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Originally Posted by kswiston

Deadline is saying $16.5M for Covenant today + previews. Low 40s for the weekend.

They have GotG2 at $8M today and $30M for the weekend, but that seems low.

The other two openers are looking to come in around $10M.

Covenant might have a similar run as ID4 2.
kswiston
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(05-19-2017, 10:31 PM)
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Originally Posted by 3N16MA

Covenant might have a similar run as ID4 2.

ID4R numbers for Alien Revenant domestically would be fine with its budget. Fox probably wants more, but that wouldn't kill the franchise.
3N16MA
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(05-19-2017, 10:34 PM)
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Originally Posted by What did he mean by this?

I dont think Dawn was as well received publically as the glowing critical reviews with have you think. It's Jason Clarkes fault of course.

And the marketing for War is unexciting in its bombasity. What happened to the claim that this was thinking mans blockbuster?

"Ape did not start dis war.....but Ape will finish it!"
ugh

Any evidence to back up that Dawn was not well received? Everything points to it was.
Discotheque
Pam Oliver sextape
(05-19-2017, 10:35 PM)
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Originally Posted by 3N16MA

Any evidence to back up that Dawn was not well received? Everything points to it was.

Forreal. It got great audience response. And the first couple trailers for this were great

Only one that wasn't so hot was the latest
What did he mean by this?
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(05-19-2017, 10:36 PM)
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Originally Posted by 3N16MA

Any evidence to back up that Dawn was not well received? Everything points to it was.

Lower box office for War?
Biggest-Geek-Ever
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(05-19-2017, 10:38 PM)
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Originally Posted by 3N16MA

Any evidence to back up that Dawn was not well received? Everything points to it was.

Its legs were merely decent, though it did face a lot of competition.

I'm uncertain if "not well received" is the right way to put it, though. Dawn was a dark, grim as hell blockbuster that made TDK feel like sunshine and rainbows, and War is looking to be even more so. I love the films for it, but I can see why general audiences wouldn't be over the moon to return to the series.
FTF
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(05-19-2017, 10:39 PM)
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Originally Posted by What did he mean by this?

I dont think Dawn was as well received publically as the glowing critical reviews with have you think. It's Jason Clarkes fault of course.

And the marketing for War is unexciting in its bombasity. What happened to the claim that this was thinking mans blockbuster?

"Ape did not start dis war.....but Ape will finish it!"
ugh

Almost a 3x multi domestically and $700m ww is a run I would consider rather good. I agree the marketing for War has been iffy, but if it's as good as the first two I think it'll have a good run.
Kart94
Junior Member
(05-19-2017, 10:43 PM)
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Originally Posted by Biggest-Geek-Ever

Here's some comps I dug up for Alien

It's pretty fucking difficult to figure out what a film is going to do from preview grosses, as you can tell. Even though it's a bit lower than what I predicted last night, $40M can certainly still happen.

Everything, Everything made $525K and Wimpy Kid did $150K. I do not know if I care enough to look up comps for them.

I looked at the trailer of Wimpy Kid. Is this a direct to video sequel? Sure has the hallmarks of one, including replacing the entire cast and washed up actors like Batgirl from Batman and Robin
kswiston
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(05-19-2017, 10:44 PM)
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Originally Posted by Kart94

I looked at the trailer of Wimpy Kid. Is this a direct to video movie? Sure has the hallmarks of replacing the entire cast.

It has the same director. No idea why they benched the whole cast.
Sibersk Esto
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(05-19-2017, 10:46 PM)
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Anecdotal, but I liked Rise more than Dawn, even if I still liked Dawn.

Dawn had a wonkier pace and some weaker human characters, including the woefully underused Gary Oldman. Harrelson's Colonel Kurtz cosplay doesn't fill me with confidence.
3N16MA
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(05-19-2017, 11:39 PM)
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Originally Posted by What did he mean by this?

Lower box office for War?

Long range forecast for a sequel does nothing to prove Dawn was not well received.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
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(05-20-2017, 12:30 AM)
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Mamma Mia 2 (yes, really) is releasing on July 20, 2018: http://www.thewrap.com/universal-set...equel-2018-go/

Will this be the film to beat TFA in the UK?
Cooter
Lacks the power of instantaneous movement
(05-20-2017, 12:51 AM)
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Holy crap I need to share this somewhere ASAP!!! The Wall might have been the worst movie I've ever seen. Definitely the most boring. Words cannot describe just how awful it was. My lord.
FoneBone
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(05-20-2017, 04:22 AM)
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Originally Posted by kswiston

It has the same director. No idea why they benched the whole cast.

The kids are too old. Don't know about the adults.
cartographer
Member
(05-20-2017, 04:28 AM)

Originally Posted by Cooter

Holy crap I need to share this somewhere ASAP!!! The Wall might have been the worst movie I've ever seen. Definitely the most boring. Words cannot describe just how awful it was. My lord.

Go stream Rules Don't Apply.
Schlorgan
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(05-20-2017, 04:54 AM)
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Originally Posted by Biggest-Geek-Ever

Mamma Mia 2 (yes, really) is releasing on July 20, 2018: http://www.thewrap.com/universal-set...equel-2018-go/

Will this be the film to beat TFA in the UK?

It'll be the film to beat Avatar.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
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(05-20-2017, 08:26 AM)
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http://deadline.com/2017/05/alien-co...ws-1202097673/

1.). Alien: Covenant (FOX), 3,761 theaters / $15.2M Fri. (includes $4.2M previews)/ 3-day cume: $39M–$40M/ Wk 1

2.). The Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2 (DIS), 4,347 theaters (0)/ $8.7M Fri. (-47%)/ 3-day cume: $33.6M (-48%)/Total: $300.3M/ Wk 3

3.). Everything, Everything (WB/MGM), 2,801 theaters / $4.6M Fri. (includes $525K previews)/ 3-day cume: $11.7M/ Wk 1

4.). Snatched (FOX), 3,511 theaters (+10) / $2.25M Fri. (-55%)/ 3-day cume: $7.5M (-62%)/ Total:$32.6M/ Wk 2

5.). Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul (FOX), 3,157 theaters / $2M Fri. (includes $150K previews)/ 3-day cume: $7.1M/ Wk 1

6.). King Arthur (WB/VR), 3,702 theaters / $1.9M Fri. (-63%)/ 3-day cume: $6.35M (-58%)/Total:$26.7M/ Wk 2

7/8) Beauty And The Beast (DIS) 1,792 (-380), $750K (-28%)/3-day: $3.1M (-34%)/Total: $498.5M/Wk 10

The Fate Of The Furious (UNI), 2,287 theaters (-780) / $807K Fri. (-41%) / 3-day cume: $3.1M (-42%) / Total cume: $219.9m / Wk 6

9.) The Boss Baby (Fox) 2,071 (-840), $592K (-39%)/3-day: $2.7M (-39%)/Total: $166M/Wk 8

10). How To Be A Latin Lover (PANT/LG), 948 theaters (-175) / $435K Fri. (-47%)/ 3-day cume: $1.8M (-53%)/ Total: $29M/Wk 4

11.). Lowriders (OTL), 365 theaters (+70) / $279K Fri. (-69%) / 3-day cume: $954K (-60%)/Total: $4M/Wk 2

We've seen some strong Saturday holds this year, so $40M isn't dead yet for Alien. $38M seems more likely, though.

I think their IM for Guardians 2 is a bit low, so that should end up around $34-35M. Assuming it isn't hurt by fellow Disney release Pirates 5 next week, it should pass the original $333M gross on Memorial Day.
Last edited by Biggest-Geek-Ever; 05-20-2017 at 08:50 AM.
GhaleonEB
knows his net worth
(05-20-2017, 08:59 AM)
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I suspect legs on Covenant are going to be pretty bad, from my own impression and those in the theater. I think the weekend plays out at the low end of expectations.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
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(05-20-2017, 09:10 AM)
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Originally Posted by GhaleonEB

I suspect legs on Covenant are going to be pretty bad, from my own impression and those in the theater. I think the weekend plays out at the low end of expectations.

Even poor films this year have had pretty decent IMs this year, so I don't think the weekend will go much lower than $38M.

But assuming that for the OW, legs are not going to be good, as you suspect. It has the same Cinemascore as Prometheus, and the Flixster score is already lower than Prometheus. Competition is fierce, too, and it will start losing theaters quickly from weekend 3 and beyond. I would guess it won't make more than 2.2-2.3 times its OW in total, so $83-87M domestic.

Not a bad result considering the budget, but that's about a ~$40M fall from Prometheus, and now the Alien name is tarnished. If they did a direct follow-up that was similarly received, it would struggle to break $50M domestically, or right around the same gross as Alien: Resurrection. Even if they lower the budget, that would be a pretty embarrassing result.
kswiston
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(05-20-2017, 03:58 PM)
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Friday Studio Estimates

1) Alien: Covenant - $15.4M
2) Guardians of the Galaxy v2 - $8.9M (-47%) - $276M total
3) Everything, Everything - $4.7M
4) Snatched - $2.3M (-55%) - $27M total
5) Diary of a Wimpy Kid 4 - $2.0M
6) King Arthur: Legend of the Sword - $1.95M (-63%) - $22M total
7) Fate of the Furious - $820k (-41%) - $218M total
8) Beauty and the Beast - $625k (-40%) - $496M total
Last edited by kswiston; 05-20-2017 at 04:01 PM.
Penguin
(05-20-2017, 04:12 PM)
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Woof at King Arthur.
kswiston
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(05-20-2017, 04:20 PM)
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Ghost in the Shell lost its second weekend drop record in China. Power Rangers is down 99% in its second Friday, and its opening weekend was already very front-loaded.

It will end its run in China with $4M.
FTF
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(05-20-2017, 04:32 PM)
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Originally Posted by kswiston

Ghost in the Shell lost its second weekend drop record in China. Power Rangers is down 99% in its second Friday, and its opening weekend was already very front-loaded.

It will end its run in China with $4M.

lol what? 99%!? Did it lose all its theaters or something?
x Power Pad Death Stomp x
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(05-20-2017, 04:42 PM)
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It's really confusing why Wimpy Kid wasn't released in August. Kids out of school and way less competition.
Gentleman Jack
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(05-20-2017, 04:43 PM)
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Originally Posted by kswiston

Ghost in the Shell lost its second weekend drop record in China. Power Rangers is down 99% in its second Friday, and its opening weekend was already very front-loaded.

It will end its run in China with $4M.

First it destroys Ant-Man and now Power Rangers. There's no stopping this momentum for GitS.
Schlorgan
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(05-20-2017, 04:50 PM)
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Originally Posted by Gentleman Jack

First it destroys Ant-Man and now Power Rangers. There's no stopping this momentum for GitS.

GitS supporters are starting to get tired of all these wins.

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