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*Splinter
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(01-12-2017, 10:31 AM)
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Originally Posted by cabot

This wasn't an objective 'chances of being scum in this game' score, this is my personal feelings on CCS being scum.


Worst case with 2 kills is SK, so that leaves a smaller window for mislynches. Still determining if using it on CCS is something I can get behind.

Yeah and 20% is the day 0 position, so you're (presumably unintentionally) saying that everything from yesterday didn't move the needle for you at all.

Mislynches will happen, we're off to a great start with the D1 scum lynch, and this part leans too heavily on him being town for me. Feel free to defend CCS if you're that sure he's clean, but it's far from certain to me.
CCS
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(01-12-2017, 10:39 AM)
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Obviously I don't expect anyone to role claim, but I hope we have a cop to investigate me with. I'd rather not die, but I am aware that my continued existence is one of the biggest confusing factors for town at the moment.
*Splinter
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(01-12-2017, 10:50 AM)
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Originally Posted by CCS

Obviously I don't expect anyone to role claim, but I hope we have a cop to investigate me with. I'd rather not die, but I am aware that my continued existence is one of the biggest confusing factors for town at the moment.

I hope not. Cop should be picking survivors, not top suspects.

Your "too scummy to be scum" D1 combined with this "please investigate me" also makes me worry about the godfather possibility.
*Splinter
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(01-12-2017, 10:53 AM)
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On the other hand scum probably would have worked harder to save a godfather yesterday? I dunno
*Splinter
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(01-12-2017, 10:58 AM)
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Originally Posted by *Splinter

On the other hand scum probably would have worked harder to save a godfather yesterday? I dunno

To elaborate: 2 votes on acohrs are confirmed town, and it happens to be the two earliest votes (and the 3rd is me). The latest vote on CCS is confirmed scum.
CCS
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(01-12-2017, 10:58 AM)
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Originally Posted by *Splinter

I hope not. Cop should be picking survivors, not top suspects.

Your "too scummy to be scum" D1 combined with this "please investigate me" also makes me worry about the godfather possibility.

I would be the world's worst godfather. I'd probably end up accidentally putting a horse's head in my own bed :P
cabot
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(01-12-2017, 12:03 PM)
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Originally Posted by *Splinter

Yeah and 20% is the day 0 position, so you're (presumably unintentionally) saying that everything from yesterday didn't move the needle for you at all.

I mean this is just going into personal WIFOM, but no I am not at my day 0 position with CCS. That's all I want to say before we delve into pointlessness.

I'm just one vote at an early stage, so my blessing isnt required to lynch CCS. Seems theres a reasonable shot of him being lynched regardless.

You've made me realize that scum reading Kawl for pushing CCS is bad/worthless though, which helps.


CCS you're at the mercy of the majority now, please don't try to sway PRs to you.


If I had my choice, I'd be between melon and Bronx right now.
cabot
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(01-12-2017, 12:05 PM)
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I town read Kyan fairly strongly after the final day of D1, and his behaviour in the voting.
CCS
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(01-12-2017, 12:08 PM)
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Originally Posted by cabot

I mean this is just going into personal WIFOM, but no I am not at my day 0 position with CCS. That's all I want to say before we delve into pointlessness.

I'm just one vote at an early stage, so my blessing isnt required to lynch CCS. Seems theres a reasonable shot of him being lynched regardless.

You've made me realize that scum reading Kawl for pushing CCS is bad/worthless though, which helps.

CCS you're at the mercy of the majority now, please don't try to sway PRs to you.


If I had my choice, I'd be between melon and Bronx right now.

Cexit incoming then :D
cabot
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(01-12-2017, 12:13 PM)
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VOTE: Ty4on

who's your scum reads so far? Will you be lynching CCS today?
cabot
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(01-12-2017, 12:18 PM)
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Originally Posted by acohrs

1. Sorian - his posts just don't sit right with me, presents his view then when challenged goes on offensive usually. Maybe it's a 'weak' vote but it's what my gut says.

2. Magnum/Absolut/Ynnek/Nin - all have posted enough to be active but just trying to keep head down and stay undetected, my guess is one of them is a scum PR that is a x number of shots killer that wants to keep their head down for a day or two so they can use their PR.

Think Natiko is definitely town, his analysis has been very detailed and helpful.

Not sure why Ty4on is being targeted, looks to me like something happened in a previous game and peeps are jumping on that rather than now.

Names that jump out to me from this post is Ty, and the 4 in section 2. Ynnek and Magnum are the ones I have no real read on.


I think Natiko was thrown in there as the solid town pick because he's not scum. Gotta throw a few truths in amongst your reads.
Ty4on
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(01-12-2017, 12:57 PM)
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Originally Posted by cabot

VOTE: Ty4on

who's your scum reads so far? Will you be lynching CCS today?

No.
I'm not sure why CCS is still a lynch target. I weirdly wish Sorian was still alive to go against the stream.

I don't have any super clear scum reads right now. Maybe Stanley, maybe AB and Kawl, feels too easy though. I spent most of the night making town reads of Natiko and CzarTim and to a lesser degree Nin and Kyan. I found the votes a bit hard to study this time around, nothing clearly townie. I understand why I'm not cleared and can kinda see Sophia being scum who noticed that nobody on her team were voting for acohrs.
*Splinter
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(01-12-2017, 01:07 PM)
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Originally Posted by Ty4on

No.
I'm not sure why CCS is still a lynch target. I weirdly wish Sorian was still alive to go against the stream.

Why weirdly? And why does it have to be Sorian?

I just feel like I'm missing something here
AbsolutBro
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(01-12-2017, 01:08 PM)
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Originally Posted by Sophia

Also, I dunno if CCS is scum, but I'm still not amused by his vote on me during that mess of a Day 1 end. I kind of wonder if that wasn't an attempt to try push the lynch onto me.

While I think CCS is town, I too would sort of like the logic of the vote explained. Why Sophia?


Originally Posted by cabot

A) melonrabbit

So I scumread melon yesterday, along with a few others. There are however those who townread her as well (Sorian and Sophia I remember specifically). We now know Sorian is town, so I can trust his read.

Sorry, this confuses me a bit. How can you trust that Sorian is right?

Originally Posted by cabot

I have a question!

Since you could have your item stolen on N1, were you allowed to use it on N1?

Again, all I have to go on is Star Wars, but there were two types of items in Star Wars: Shields (1 shot bulletproof) and Blasters (1 shot kill command). The Shields were passive and presumably would have worked the night they were received. The Blasters required a command to be submitted, so I would guess if an item requires a command there would have been no time to issue the command. (Since commands tend to all be resolved at the end of the phase, rather than as received.)

While I am curious what the item is, I think we also have to consider if the item-giver has other types of items. And whether or not it is worth giving out details of items this early. Scum will get that information also, after all.
AbsolutBro
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(01-12-2017, 01:09 PM)
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Originally Posted by AbsolutBro

Sorry, this confuses me a bit. How can you trust that Sorian is right?

Derp, nevermind. You can trust that his read was a genuine one, not a correct one.

I should get some breakfast before I keep going.
*Splinter
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(01-12-2017, 01:12 PM)
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FTR I haven't speculated on the item stuff because I don't see the point in it, at least until we have more information.
cabot
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(01-12-2017, 01:27 PM)
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The item speculation does seem relatively futile at this stage in the game.

AB, who are you reading as scum?

any lynch targets today.

You read CCS like town also, but do you think his lynch would give us valuable information?


If he flips Town, there's more confidence in trusting scum hit that wagon.

If he flips Scum, then scum were in a real bloody jam on D1, I'd maybe be looking for player attitudes turning negative or something. Also possibly the Sophia votes?

If he flips neutral, lol
CCS
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(01-12-2017, 01:37 PM)
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Why did I vote Sophia? Because at the time it was a three way fight and I thought acohrs was town.
Ty4on
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(01-12-2017, 01:41 PM)
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Originally Posted by *Splinter

Why weirdly? And why does it have to be Sorian?

I just feel like I'm missing something here

Weirdly because I struggled to read him and leaned scum :P
Also this:

Originally Posted by Sorian

I would lynch Acorhs and if he was town that would give me nothing to work with on CCS unless this is some weird masons/lovers play. And if Acorhs was scum, that would probably give me a town read on CCS because no way two scummates do this.

Ty4on
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(01-12-2017, 01:47 PM)
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CCS does something silly because he does.
Acohrs plays along and didn't foresee what he was dragging himself into.
???
Scum lynch.

That sounds way more likely than:

CCS and acohrs decide to bring a bunch of extra attention onto them because
....ehm...
We'll maybe end up town reading one of them?
???
Scum lynch.

That's not even considering how their interactions weren't looking W/W.
*Splinter
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(01-12-2017, 02:01 PM)
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Originally Posted by Ty4on

That's not even considering how their interactions weren't looking W/W.

I disagree with this bit. They both just survived to the end of Pop with a similar shtick. Maybe not classic W/W but I can see it being intentional this time.

That Sorian quote is interesting though.
cabot
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(01-12-2017, 02:04 PM)
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Originally Posted by *Splinter

I disagree with this bit. They both just survived to the end of Pop with a similar shtick. Maybe not classic W/W but I can see it being intentional this time.

That Sorian quote is interesting though.

Is it? it was an opinion shared with fran and I. Doesn't seem a ridiculous conclusion to reach.
CCS
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(01-12-2017, 02:05 PM)
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It is interesting that both of the people night killed would have argued against lynching me.
*Splinter
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(01-12-2017, 02:07 PM)
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Originally Posted by cabot

Is it? it was an opinion shared with fran and I. Doesn't seem a ridiculous conclusion to reach.

It's interesting because Sorian was killed for no definite reason.

And since you mention him, Fran is also dead.
*Splinter
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(01-12-2017, 02:09 PM)
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Originally Posted by CCS

It is interesting that both of the people night killed would have argued against lynching me.

Ah good point, I could be walking right into a trap with that thinking.
CzarTim
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(01-12-2017, 02:11 PM)
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TB can you tell us where you're at?

Also has Sophia been scum outside of the game which we do not speak?
CzarTim
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(01-12-2017, 02:19 PM)
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Of the two kills I am more inclined to believe Fran was iced by scum and Sorian by either a vig or 3p. Reason I say that is Fran was relatively quiet and thus unlikely to be protected, yet his strong push for aco would have made it very hard to build a case against him later in the game. This also implies we have at least one vet scum member, and I'm wondering at what point a vet would have hung aco out to dry.

Sorian is a much weirder choice because I could totally see scum Sorian bussing like that. I was not going into today confident he was town by any stretch.
Kawl_USC
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(01-12-2017, 02:20 PM)
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Originally Posted by *Splinter

It's interesting because Sorian was killed for no definite reason.

And since you mention him, Fran is also dead.

Lol you mean besides being sorian?

Fran I could at least see wifom discussion regarding motive. But sorian? Come on dawg
Kawl_USC
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(01-12-2017, 02:22 PM)
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Originally Posted by CzarTim

Of the two kills I am more inclined to believe Fran was iced by scum and Sorian by either a vig or 3p. Reason I say that is Fran was relatively quiet and thus unlikely to be protected, yet his strong push for aco would have made it very hard to build a case against him later in the game. This also implies we have at least one vet scum member, and I'm wondering at what point a vet would have hung aco out to dry.

Sorian is a much weirder choice because I could totally see scum Sorian bussing like that. I was not going into today confident he was town by any stretch.

That's presupposing motive and reasoning behind scum skills though. Very likely could just go for the players they find scarier rather than semi cleared people. I find these discussion the opposite of helpful sometimes.
Ty4on
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(01-12-2017, 02:26 PM)
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They could've gambled knowing that Sorian wasn't universally trusted.
CzarTim
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(01-12-2017, 02:27 PM)
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Originally Posted by Kawl_USC

That's presupposing motive and reasoning behind scum skills though. Very likely could just go for the players they find scarier rather than semi cleared people. I find these discussion the opposite of helpful sometimes.

You are right, and normally I would not bring it up, but looking at the voting it's hard to avoid. If we have a relatively inexperienced scum team, I could see them sitting on a ccs vote and not changing.

If ccs is town, who do you think is scum on the aco vote?
AbsolutBro
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(01-12-2017, 02:27 PM)
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Originally Posted by cabot

The item speculation does seem relatively futile at this stage in the game.

AB, who are you reading as scum?

any lynch targets today.

You read CCS like town also, but do you think his lynch would give us valuable information?


If he flips Town, there's more confidence in trusting scum hit that wagon.

If he flips Scum, then scum were in a real bloody jam on D1, I'd maybe be looking for player attitudes turning negative or something. Also possibly the Sophia votes?

If he flips neutral, lol

I still find Melon kind of scummy. I mentioned the survey things before but you've covered that.

I find it odd, but not necessarily scummy, that Nin hasn't picked a tunnel target though. :P

This will sound dumb, but the only reason I'm uneasy about Czar is because of how much I town read him. He's pointing out inconsistency, calling people out, and asking clarifying questions. All this makes me town read him. Problem is, last time I town read him was Danganronpa and well... we saw how that turned out.

Beyond that I'm rereading the whole Sorian/Ty4on/Sophia exchange. We know Sorian was town, but it's possible at least one of Ty4on/Sophia is scum.

As for CCS, I am really not sure how valuable the information his flip gives really is. The vote towards even the middle of the day phase was already centered around those two, so votes on either one at day's end were pretty much a given. I suppose if he flips scum we could look at people who didn't vote for either CCS or Acohrs, but that is three people:

Pop, who has been replaced
CCS, who is the subject of discussion anyway
Magnumboy20xx, who is definitely flying quiet right now.

So while I would like to hear more from Magnum, I am not yet inclined to call him scum.

Vote: Magnumboy20xx

I will prod though.
CCS
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(01-12-2017, 02:28 PM)
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Kawl, you really are wedded to me being scum aren't you? Feels like you're tunneling a bit too much.
Kawl_USC
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(01-12-2017, 02:29 PM)
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Agreed with Bronxs whole song and dance with CCS vote being weird. Either way too protective of his own skin (which I could see) or genuinely doesn't care about his vote which leans towards bad town or scum. (See bad town more than scum here though that's just gut)

Im pushing so hard for a CCS lynch because I think his play doesn't make any sense, and the downside of him also being scum turns our day one scum lynch into a negative by running us down a rabbit hole of the CCS/non acohrs voters and letting CCS slip through.

I'll go as far as to say I will not vote for anyone where the main argument is derived from voting for CCS over acohrs until CCS is flipped.
Kawl_USC
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(01-12-2017, 02:30 PM)
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Originally Posted by Ty4on

They could've gambled knowing that Sorian wasn't universally trusted.

Sure but generally that's a bad bet for scum teams.

I'd kill the shit out of sorian with pretty much zero hesitation.
CCS
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(01-12-2017, 02:30 PM)
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Originally Posted by Kawl_USC

Agreed with Bronxs whole song and dance with CCS vote being weird. Either way too protective of his own skin (which I could see) or genuinely doesn't care about his vote which leans towards bad town or scum. (See bad town more than scum here though that's just gut)

Im pushing so hard for a CCS lynch because I think his play doesn't make any sense, and the downside of him also being scum turns our day one scum lynch into a negative by running us down a rabbit hole of the CCS/non acohrs voters and letting CCS slip through.

I'll go as far as to say I will not vote for anyone where the main argument is derived from voting for CCS over acohrs until CCS is flipped.

Come on, you've played live mafia with me before.

You should know my play never makes any sense :P
Kawl_USC
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(01-12-2017, 02:32 PM)
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Originally Posted by CzarTim

If ccs is town, who do you think is scum on the aco vote?

Will have to go back this evening when I'm on computer and can look through the votes as they came in more easily.

But I'm almost tempted to say that I'll do that searching when I see CCS's flip, as you can see my statement regarding voting anyone based on assuming CCS's alignment above.
CzarTim
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(01-12-2017, 02:35 PM)
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Originally Posted by Kawl_USC

Will have to go back this evening when I'm on computer and can look through the votes as they came in more easily.

But I'm almost tempted to say that I'll do that searching when I see CCS's flip, as you can see my statement regarding voting anyone based on assuming CCS's alignment above.

Alright, but unless you're calling for a turbo, we need to at least discuss other players today.
Kawl_USC
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(01-12-2017, 02:35 PM)
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Originally Posted by CCS

Kawl, you really are wedded to me being scum aren't you? Feels like you're tunneling a bit too much.

It's less being certain your scum and more being certain of the huge downsides for town if you are.

Which is why unless given a strong case for someone else I'm not moving my vote.




Originally Posted by CCS

Come on, you've played live mafia with me before.

You should know my play never makes any sense :P

And this is exactly part of the reason. You have this excuse for any of your play so town can talk itself out of lynchjng. As scum you are too slippery, as town you are just a weaker player who makes it difficult to suss out motivation. Your lynch gives us additional information. That's like 4 reasons to lunch you right there.
Kawl_USC
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(01-12-2017, 02:36 PM)
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Originally Posted by CzarTim

Alright, but unless you're calling for a turbo, we need to at least discuss other players today.

100% agreed, and I'm going to start to discussing other topics/people shortly.

No turbo, no turbo, you're a turbo.
Kawl_USC
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(01-12-2017, 02:39 PM)
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Originally Posted by CzarTim

TB can you tell us where you're at?

Also has Sophia been scum outside of the game which we do not speak?

To answer this second I'm almost certain, no.
Kawl_USC
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(01-12-2017, 02:41 PM)
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My read on Cabot stays positive. Using a flurry of posts to cover wide spread of topics and ask specific people for their opinions. I find his logic on the day end unvote believable.

Probably my top town for now.
cabot
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(01-12-2017, 02:53 PM)
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Originally Posted by Ynnek7

Finally out of work and sitting in my car while it warms up. We were pretty busy today, hopefully it will be slower later in the week when Day 2 comes around.

After reading the past few pages I'm voting for

Vote: CCS

If you aren't scum, then you're one of the most anti-town townies I've ever seen. Acohrs is looking pretty bad right now, too, with the recent voting shenanigans, but not as bad as you in my opinion.

Ugh, this is a tough one. I honestly thought acohrs was being super scummy at day end, way more than CCS was.

He never claimed, he switched votes and attempted to force a tie.


Ynnek, can you give a detailed read of ccs vs acohrs

and can you comment on today's happenings so far?
*Splinter
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(01-12-2017, 02:54 PM)
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Kawl is giving me the bad feelings all of a sudden
cabot
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(01-12-2017, 02:55 PM)
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VOTE: Ynnek7
nin1000
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(01-12-2017, 02:58 PM)
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hi, there.
cabot
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(01-12-2017, 02:58 PM)
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I dunno Kawl it feels you are trying to excuse what you believe the likely town flip of CCS in advance of it happening.

I'm reminded of Love Boat and FluxWaveZ, where town just sleepwalked into a bad lynch due to bad townisms.
nin1000
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(01-12-2017, 02:59 PM)
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Originally Posted by AbsolutBro

I find it odd, but not necessarily scummy, that Nin hasn't picked a tunnel target though. :P

Its 2017, some things have to change :P

Will be reading through the thread in a second bear with me.
Kawl_USC
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(01-12-2017, 03:00 PM)
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Originally Posted by *Splinter

Kawl is giving me the bad feelings all of a sudden

That's just indigestion.

Or do you mean the feelings in your down under? Those aren't bad despite with southern baptists and Catholics tell you.

What is giving you bad feelings?
Kawl_USC
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(01-12-2017, 03:03 PM)
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Originally Posted by cabot

I dunno Kawl it feels you are trying to excuse what you believe the likely town flip of CCS in advance of it happening.

I'm reminded of Love Boat and FluxWaveZ, where town just sleepwalked into a bad lynch due to bad townisms.

Sure CCS is likely town. Every player is likely town. Difference here is being wrong still gives us two benefits. You know I'm about that expected outcome analysis and minimizing downsides. And you know he could still be scum. His play is weird as shit regardless. His play in every game I've seen him as been weird as shit. So I find applying normal reasoning like claiming is more likely town than scum to fall kind of flat for him.

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