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KillerMan91
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(01-30-2017, 07:24 PM)
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Originally Posted by bomma_man

Not if it's preferential though? If I understand, the FN has a small but dedicated base which is why they'll probably win the first round in FPTP. But surely in a preferential system those on the left (and maybe a few on the right) would put them last, or close to last, outweighing that first glance advantage. It's essentially an instant run off, and would largely prevent vote splitting.

I understand the symbolic value given France's history though.

It's not just France. We have similar system in use here in Finland when it comes to presidential elections. I would guess there are decent amount of other countries too with also two part elections.
Simplet
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(01-30-2017, 08:13 PM)
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Originally Posted by Pizza con salsiccia

The irony in this picture is fantastic.
Which home would it be for poor Manuel?

Evry? Barcelona? Jerusalem?

What the fuck?
mo60
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(01-30-2017, 11:37 PM)
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Originally Posted by Alx

Depends on how you define landslide. A 35-40% defeat would be expected, but is already far too much everything considered. I was happy with her father's 18% slap in the face, but we're talking twice that now.
My only optimistic perception of the current situation is that the FN couldn't have a better configuration right now. Brexit, Trump, Syrian crisis, nationalism all around Europe, Marine popularity etc., all stars are aligned for an optimal score (and it will, hopefully, still not be enough for her to be elected). Which means for them it will all be downhill from now. In 5 years, the results of UK&US isolationism will show, we will have found a way to deal with migrant crisis if it's still there, and there are chances that there will be infighting within the FN.

There already looks like infighting will happen within the FN after the election between the two parts of the party.I think le pen losing by 20 percent or more is a big enough landslide because her party won't have a chance of improving their results in the second round in the next presidential election.
Magni
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(01-31-2017, 05:53 AM)
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Originally Posted by G.O.O.

Slightly OT but I just want people interested in French politics to remember that we have our own Richard Spencer, both in general profile and in how he became known out of his sphere of influence.

(the guy who punches him is also a nazi though, so there's that)

That's all, thank you

Niveau Zéro indeed.
Hypron
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(01-31-2017, 05:57 AM)
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Originally Posted by Simplet

What the fuck?

He's also sad Le Pen won't win the next election so don't think about it too hard.
G.O.O.
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(01-31-2017, 03:07 PM)
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How to read French election polls - or why Marine le Pen, despite being given winner of the first round, isn't the favourite in this election.

Keep watching. French polling has been reliable in recent elections, and should be even more so now that the Socialists have chosen Benoit Hamon as their candidate, the last of the major parties to select a nominee. So far, pollsters have had to run numerous scenarios by voters. Now surveys will be able to gauge whether Hamon really will send moderate Socialists supporters scurrying toward Macron. And keep an eye on Oddschecker.com. The bookmakers have lengthened the odds on a Fillon victory over the past week, reckoning his legal problems will feed through into polls in the coming days. The Republican is now joint favorite alongside Macron, with about a 40 percent chance, while Le Pen has a probability of 25 percent.

Fistwell
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(01-31-2017, 06:56 PM)
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French polling has been reliable in recent elections

Have they? I thought Juppé was going to crush all and Fillon didn't stand a chance? (is what I remember but didn't really pay all that much attention so what do I know)
Alx
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(01-31-2017, 06:59 PM)
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Originally Posted by Festwill

Have they? I thought Juppé was going to crush all and Fillon didn't stand a chance? (is what I remember but didn't really pay all that much attention so what do I know)

The polls were actually quite reliable at picking the quick rise of Fillon in the last few days.In the last debate, all candidates were teaming against Fillon because they knew he was the new favorite. Same thing happened with Hamon. The issue isn't really the reliability of the poll, but the quick-changing popularities of (apparently) random candidates.
You also have to consider that the campaigns for the primaries were quite short, so people had to take their decision at the last minute since they didn't even know most of the candidates beforehand.
Also it's worth noting that Le Pen has the most stable trend of all candidates. She has the highest ranking, but the lowest dynamics. Unless something major happens, it's unlikely she'll move much from her current position.
Last edited by Alx; 01-31-2017 at 07:03 PM.
gutter_trash
(01-31-2017, 07:02 PM)
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I'm am so happy that you guys have a Two-round system
G.O.O.
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(01-31-2017, 07:03 PM)
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They have been for the "real" elections but were wrong for the primaries, indeed. However the primaries are quite new and pollsters don't know yet how to work with them, since a lot of people express their preference for one candidate or another but ultimately decide whether or not they're going to vote on election day or shortly before.

For the right, it was the very first open primary. Second one for the left.

On another subject, today's news brought a lot of dirt on both Le Pen and Fillon and I don't even know where to start but it's getting really fucking embarrassing.
GhostTrick
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(01-31-2017, 07:05 PM)
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Originally Posted by Festwill

Have they? I thought Juppé was going to crush all and Fillon didn't stand a chance? (is what I remember but didn't really pay all that much attention so what do I know)



They were. You have to keep in mind Polls are taking opinions at one instant. When Fillon was at 10% that was the reality. Before the vote though, polls gave him 1st.


Originally Posted by G.O.O.

They have been for the "real" elections but were wrong for the primaries, indeed. However the primaries are quite new and pollsters don't know yet how to work with them, since a lot of people express their preference for one candidate or another but ultimately decide whether or not they're going to vote on election day or shortly before.

For the right, it was the very first open primary. Second one for the left.

On another subject, today's news brought a lot of dirt on both Le Pen and Fillon and I don't even know where to start but it's getting really fucking embarrassing.



But they've been right for primaries too !
What people don't understand is that polls and opinions change.
G.O.O.
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(01-31-2017, 07:13 PM)
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I remember Fillon surged like two days before the election but not Hamon doing the same... in fact I remember polls telling very different things from one day to another on the left :/
GhostTrick
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(01-31-2017, 07:19 PM)
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Originally Posted by G.O.O.

I remember Fillon surged like two days before the election but not Hamon doing the same... in fact I remember polls telling very different things from one day to another on the left :/



Same for Hamon.
http://www.bfmtv.com/politique/prima...t-1090070.html
As you can see, the numbers were fairly close to the final result.
Alx
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(01-31-2017, 07:33 PM)
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Originally Posted by DiipuSurotu

http://www.france24.com/en/20170131-...ament-penelope

LRIP

I don't think that would change much in the end, from what I heard the Parliament jobs are too imprecise and non traceable to lead to an official sanction (although it's not a good look for him, obviously). The investigation is focusing instead on his wife's job in the publishing company.
Fistwell
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(01-31-2017, 08:02 PM)
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Originally Posted by DiipuSurotu

http://www.france24.com/en/20170131-...ament-penelope

LRIP

Last edited by Fistwell; 01-31-2017 at 08:04 PM.
G.O.O.
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(01-31-2017, 08:05 PM)
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please, don't forget Le Pen

http://www.france24.com/en/20170131-...-misused-funds

And of course she refuses to pay and claims it's a conspiracy against her 40 blokes who don't do shit at the parliament.

Oh, and there's also this shit right here
Holden
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(01-31-2017, 08:06 PM)
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Originally Posted by Alx

I don't think that would change much in the end, from what I heard the Parliament jobs are too imprecise and non traceable to lead to an official sanction (although it's not a good look for him, obviously). The investigation is focusing instead on his wife's job in the publishing company.

seeing how close the 2nd place is starting to be

it probably will have an effect
Tugatrix
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(01-31-2017, 08:12 PM)
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Originally Posted by G.O.O.

please, don't forget Le Pen

http://www.france24.com/en/20170131-...-misused-funds

And of course she refuses to pay and claims it's a conspiracy against her 40 blokes who don't do shit at the parliament.

Oh, and there's also this shit right here

If she took money why isn't she in prison?
Alx
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(01-31-2017, 08:14 PM)
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Originally Posted by Holden

seeing how close the 2nd place is starting to be

it probably will have an effect

Oh yeah it may have an impact on the final result, I was mostly thinking about whether Fillon will be prosecuted or not.
It's still early to know how close the race will be in the end though. Right now Macron is on Fillon's heel, but his bubble can burst too.
Kurtofan
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(01-31-2017, 08:15 PM)
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Originally Posted by Festwill

hamon the hobbit
Fistwell
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(01-31-2017, 08:25 PM)
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Originally Posted by Kurtofan

hamon the hobbit

Kurtofan
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(01-31-2017, 08:26 PM)
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he has that frodo look
DiipuSurotu
(01-31-2017, 08:30 PM)
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Maybe he can stand against Recep "Gollum" Erdogan.
Fistwell
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(01-31-2017, 08:33 PM)
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Yeah there's something. (I'm just posting random hamon gifs at this point to be quite honest...)

This Fillon pic here is pretty on point tho.

G.O.O.
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(01-31-2017, 08:42 PM)
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Originally Posted by Tugatrix

If she took money why isn't she in prison?

the parliament will take the money back on her salary



putain de campagne de merde j'en ai marre de cette bande de fdp d'escrocs votre place est en taule allez vous faire enculer asselineau 2017
DiipuSurotu
(01-31-2017, 08:50 PM)
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Originally Posted by Festwill

This Fillon pic here is pretty on point tho.

whyamihere
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(01-31-2017, 08:58 PM)
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Macron is kinda hot.

That's all.
G.O.O.
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(01-31-2017, 09:02 PM)
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For non-French speakers : François Fillon’s wife, children paid almost €1 million: report

as we say, c'est la fête du slip (roughly translated as this is the party of the underpants, which means this is fucking ridiculous)
Fistwell
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(01-31-2017, 09:08 PM)
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Originally Posted by G.O.O.

For non-French speakers : François Fillon’s wife, children paid almost €1 million: report

as we say, c'est la fête du slip (roughly translated as this is the party of the underpants, which means this is fucking ridiculous)

Yeah but, they're, hum ... lawyers? I only have the, uh, ... the one bank account, and, hum... you're sexist?
G.O.O.
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(01-31-2017, 09:13 PM)
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Originally Posted by Festwill

Yeah but, they're, hum ... lawyers? I only have the, uh, ... the one bank account, and, hum... you're sexist?

Ironically, his daughter was payed 1000 € less than his son for the same job
Fistwell
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(01-31-2017, 09:18 PM)
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Originally Posted by G.O.O.

Ironically, his daughter was payed 1000 € less than his son for the same job

Yeah, saw that, that's pretty great. The guy preemptively owned himself like 10 years ago.

Congratulations Fañch, you played yourself.
Alx
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(01-31-2017, 10:32 PM)
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So apparently François Bayrou (another potential center-right candidate) was on the TV news tonight. Still hasn't said if he would run for President, but will decide before the middle of the month.
I guess if Fillon explodes, he could have a chance too. There will be a void to fill anyway.
G.O.O.
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(01-31-2017, 10:55 PM)
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Originally Posted by Alx

So apparently François Bayrou (another potential center-right candidate) was on the TV news tonight. Still hasn't said if he would run for President, but will decide before the middle of the month.
I guess if Fillon explodes, he could have a chance too. There will be a void to fill anyway.

There's room for only one centrist and we already know who that is

By the way others seem eager to fill the void left by Fillon if he steps down, domain names baroin2017 and wauquiez2017 have just been registered...
Tribes of Trusty
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(01-31-2017, 11:18 PM)
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I love how when people who are pro-Fillon or pro-Le Pen are confronted with facts that provoke a strong cognitive dissonance within themselves (such as oh I don't know, basically frauding and gaming the whole system, financing themselves and their family while shouting to everyone that the middle/low classes are crashing France because of how they exploit the system), they tend to answer either by deflecting to another candidate of their choice, or by just ignoring this.


Man it infuriates me that I need to have a clean police record for my job and the politician do not. This year's election is, as usual, a shit show :)
Please not that my rant concerns every politican from all across the hémicycle.


Also after Brexit and Trumpf I'm kind of afraid how the French elections are going to turn out.
Coffinhal
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(01-31-2017, 11:25 PM)
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Originally Posted by Alx

So apparently François Bayrou (another potential center-right candidate) was on the TV news tonight. Still hasn't said if he would run for President, but will decide before the middle of the month.
I guess if Fillon explodes, he could have a chance too. There will be a void to fill anyway.

Not really.

UMP/LR wouldn't support him (and they are definitely going to have a candidate).
He doesn't have an organized party anymore.
He is at best a right-wing centrist, while Fillon is a on a strong right/far-right approach.
And his political space has been taken up by a younger, fresher, organized candidate (Macron)

Would he even have the 500 signatures required ?

He was on TV so that poll agencies will continue to take in name in the next polls (that are going to be Rolling polls) and so that he can decide based on that if he it is Worth it

Originally Posted by G.O.O.

By the way others seem eager to fill the void left by Fillon if he steps down, domain names baroin2017 and wauquiez2017 have just been registered...

We don't know where that comes from, it could very well be people that read that in the paper and/or want to be in the paper.

I don't see how he's not gonna drop the race sooner or later though, you can't survive one week like he had. Worst political PR I've seen in years, for someone that was already weak. Even if the police doesn't come for him, the polls will kill him soon and LR/UMP are going to hold an emergency election in order to find a replacement, but good luck finding someone this quickly that everybody want and with a project.

It's an impossible situation. Macron has never been closer to the presidency, he had every single green light since November : Juppé lost against Fillon, leaving the center right ; Hollande not coming again ; Hamon winning over Valls leaving the center right open ; and now Fillon doing the worst pre-campaign. If Bayrou isn't here, Le Pen torn up in scandals and Trump outcomes, and the left lost in a divided state....
Last edited by Coffinhal; 01-31-2017 at 11:33 PM.
Alx
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(01-31-2017, 11:29 PM)
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Originally Posted by G.O.O.

There's room for only one centrist and we already know who that is

People still aren't sure that Macron will keep it up all the way, right now he's mostly surfing on a positive buzz, but there are still months to go and he hasn't started discussing his program.
He's benefiting from the lack of competition right now. But between Hamon and Fillon, there is enough room for two. Especially if Fillon stays in the race but with a new handicap.
Coffinhal
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(01-31-2017, 11:41 PM)
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Originally Posted by Alx

People still aren't sure that Macron will keep it up all the way, right now he's mostly surfing on a positive buzz, but there are still months to go and he hasn't started discussing his program.
He's benefiting from the lack of competition right now. But between Hamon and Fillon, there is enough room for two. Especially if Fillon stays in the race but with a new handicap.

Not really too. The amount of people he is gathering is impressive for an early campaign. He is gaining more and more supporters from areas of influence (media, politics, business etc). And he has started to discuss his program too (culture on Friday IIRC), after discussing his "vision" (which is the most important, you don't win with a 500 pages Platform but a coherent general Framework with one or two ideas that stand up).

An election (and a competition) is always about being stronger when other are weak so your point doesn't stand here. He wouldn't be so high if he wasn't great on both strategy and Policy. He could drop if (when?) he's going to be controversial with an idea during the real campaign in one month.
Koren
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(01-31-2017, 11:42 PM)
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Originally Posted by Coffinhal

Would he even have the 500 signatures required ?

For that, at least, I don't have a single doubt he would. I mean, Cheminade managed to get his in 2012...

Giving your signature doesn't mean support, it's just a way to avoid the number of joke candidates exploding.



After that, I don't know... There would be a clash with Macron, indeed, but I still think Macron is high because he hasn't given a single detail about its plans. I know recent elections have more to do with people than with projects, but still.

I believe it could be a good candidate, but at the same time, good candidates have no chance with the current two-turn system ^_^
Alx
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(01-31-2017, 11:47 PM)
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Originally Posted by Coffinhal

Not really too. The amount of people he is gathering is impressive for an early campaign. He is gaining more and more supporters from areas of influence (media, politics, business etc).

Same could be said of Bayrou in 2002. He was "hot stuff" with ratings in the 20s too early in the campaign, and he crumbled in the end to get only 7%. And without any scandal or faux-pas, people just changed their mind.
My bad, I mixed up 2002 and 2007. And apparently it was in 2012 that he started strong but suffered a strong brake towards the end.
Last edited by Alx; 01-31-2017 at 11:57 PM.
FDC1
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(01-31-2017, 11:58 PM)

Originally Posted by Alx

Same could be said of Bayrou in 2002. He was "hot stuff" with ratings in the 20s too early in the campaign, and he crumbled in the end to get only 7%. And without any scandal or faux-pas, people just changed their mind.

You must mix elections because Bayrou was never at 20% during the 2002 campaign. Actually, his final score was better than expected thanks to the slap affair in the last weeks of the campaign

He was high in surveys in 2007, but wasn't able to gain the last points which would have allowed him to be in the final 2

Edit: well, too late ;)
Palette Swap
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(02-01-2017, 12:03 AM)
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Originally Posted by Festwill

Yeah but, they're, hum ... lawyers? I only have the, uh, ... the one bank account, and, hum... you're sexist?

You guys are really mean, when all Fillon did was demonstrate his ability to create jobs. Well paid jobs on top of that.
Coffinhal
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(02-01-2017, 12:06 AM)
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Originally Posted by Koren

For that, at least, I don't have a single doubt he would. I mean, Cheminade managed to get his in 2012...

Giving your signature doesn't mean support, it's just a way to avoid the number of joke candidates exploding.



After that, I don't know... There would be a clash with Macron, indeed, but I still think Macron is high because he hasn't given a single detail about its plans. I know recent elections have more to do with people than with projects, but still.

I believe it could be a good candidate, but at the same time, good candidates have no chance with the current two-turn system ^_^

No that's not true. He is giving détails there and there. Just look at his twitter feed, it's all over there. There is still 3 months, he has all the time to present his Platform, that's a card he could use if he struggles in one month for instance.

The two-round system is made for parties that can make coalitions around strong candidate. Macron could use his "progressive left AND right" position to rally people with him. It's way easier if he's against Le Pen, because as I explained before she doesn't stand a chance because of her isolation. That totally changes the two-round system's rules. But he could also win against Fillon.

Originally Posted by Alx

Same could be said of Bayrou in 2002. He was "hot stuff" with ratings in the 20s too early in the campaign, and he crumbled in the end to get only 7%. And without any scandal or faux-pas, people just changed their mind.

Do you have a source for those "20s" in polls for Bayrou in 2002 ?

I found this and Bayrou never goes higher than 7 http://www.france-politique.fr/sonda...ielle-2002.htm

In 2007 he was below 10 before February, then went up to 18 and it was his final result http://www.france-politique.fr/sonda...ielle-2007.htm

edit : that's not 2012 neither, he was always around 10 http://www.france-politique.fr/sonda...ielle-2012.htm

That doesn't mean that Macron can't or won't drop, but don't under-estimate the dynamic of his campaign that is no longer just media noise. He is doing very good job.
Last edited by Coffinhal; 02-01-2017 at 12:08 AM.
mo60
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(02-01-2017, 01:44 AM)
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Does anyone here think Trump being president of the US right now will help Macron? Trump's presidency so far has not been that good and Macron's main opponent(Fillon and Le Pen) kinda have similar position to trump on certain issues like Russia. Fillon also seems to be collapsing in the polls right now.
Skyzard
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(02-01-2017, 01:49 AM)
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In the UK yesterday there were reports that Le Pen wants to introduce a muslim ban like trump's. I only came across sources from tabloid papers that aren't regarded highly but still very popular, but I thought it was worth a mention -

France may enforce its own Donald Trump-style ‘Muslim travel ban’ if far-right leader Marine Le Pen wins the election

-the sun

France will copy Donald Trump’s travel ban if Marine Le Pen is elected as president his year, her senior aide reveals

-daily mail
Slaythe
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(02-01-2017, 01:51 AM)
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Ok Fillon's dead.

Time for the real savior.

François Baroin :




That would make everything easier wouldn't it ?
Hypron
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(02-01-2017, 02:40 AM)
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Originally Posted by Skyzard

In the UK yesterday there were reports that Le Pen wants to introduce a muslim ban like trump's. I only came across sources from tabloid papers that aren't regarded highly but still very popular, but I thought it was worth a mention -


-the sun


-daily mail

I found this source. Le Figaro is pretty legit I think.

"Et pourquoi pas?", a répondu à l'AFP Steeve Briois, interrogé pour savoir si le FN pourrait s'inspirer du décret américain interdisant temporairement l'entrée aux Etats-Unis de ressortissants de certains pays musulmans. "On n'est plus dans le monde des bisounours. On est dans un monde horrible, donc de temps en temps il faut prendre aussi des mesures d'autorité, quitte à choquer", a argumenté le vice-président du FN, membre de l'équipe de campagne de Marine Le Pen.

My rough translation:

"Why not?", replied Steeve Briois to AFP after being asked if the FN could be inspired by the American EO forbidding entry to the US to citizens from certain Muslim countries. "We're not living in the care bears' world anymore. We live in a horrible world, so sometimes it's also necessary to take authority measures, even if they are shocking", the FN vice-president and Le Pen campaign team member argued.

Guy sounds like an asshole. Talking about "le monde des bisounours" is about on the same level of assholeishness as talking about "special snowflakes".

Can't believe people are voting for these cunts.

They also have something on their website saying they want to forbid double citizenship with countries outside of the EU, which would directly affect me.
Last edited by Hypron; 02-01-2017 at 02:43 AM.
Magni
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(02-01-2017, 03:07 AM)
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Originally Posted by Hypron

They also have something on their website saying they want to forbid double citizenship with countries outside of the EU, which would directly affect me.

Fuck that shit. The world needs more multinationals, not less.
mo60
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(02-01-2017, 05:23 AM)
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Le Pen doesn't want to pay the $321000 she misspent to pay an aide at the FN's headquarters in paris. The deadline for the payment has passed now.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38821074

This story is definitely going to hurt le pen in both rounds of the french presidential elections.
Palette Swap
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(02-01-2017, 06:50 AM)
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Originally Posted by Slaythe

Ok Fillon's dead.

Time for the real savior.

François Baroin :




That would make everything easier wouldn't it ?

Of all the candidates to back in the primary, the guy decided to be a Sarkozist. Fuck that noise.

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