Welcome to the UK General Election 2017 OT!
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Previous related GAF threads:
- Scottish Referendum 2014 OT
- UK General Election 2015 OT
- EU Referendum 2016 OT
- The UK Votes to leave the European Union OT1 OT2
- UK PoliGAF |OT2| - We Blue Ourselves
Our story can be traced back to before the last Election. David Cameron, wanting to secure a Parliamentary majority after five years of Coalition rule with the Liberal Democrats, appeased many Euro-sceptic Conservative voters by including in the Tory manifesto a pledge to hold a referendum on the UK’s membership in the European Union. The Conservative party won an unexpected majority victory (it’s first since 1992) and the Prime Minister was obligated to hold this EU Referendum.
The Referendum was held on 23rd June 2016. The United Kingdom voted by 51.89% to 48.11% to Leave the EU. As a result, David Cameron resigned as Prime Minister and soon after as an MP. Following the turmoil of the Referendum result, the resignations and a leadership election that saw the all other candidates withdraw, Cameron’s own former Home Secretary, Theresa May, was elected new leader of the Conservative Party and thus the UK’s second female Prime Minister. May quickly formed her Cabinet and focused the Tories as “the party of Brexit” and, along with existing trials and tribulations going on in the Labour party, started to gap the opposition in opinion polls.
On Tuesday 18th April, faced with continuing scrutiny on it’s handling of the post Referendum political landscape, exiting the EU and not having an election mandate, Prime Minister Theresa May called for a vote under the Fixed Term Parliamentary Act to allow a UK General Election on the 8th June. This vote, held the day after, was successful by 522 votes to 13 and as such the voters of the United Kingdom will be called upon for the second time in just over two years for a General Election, and the third if the EU Referendum is included.
The Parliament of the United Kingdom is the supreme legislative body of the United Kingdom, British Crown dependancies and British overseas territories. It’s head is Queen Elizabeth II (known as “the Sovereign) and is located at the Palace of Westminster, London. The Parliament consists of an upper house (the House of Lords) and a lower house (the House of Commons). The Sovereign forms the third component of the legislature. Parliament consists of 1455 seats, split between the Lords (805 seats) and Commons (650 seats).
A General Election is the election of all 650 seats in the House of Commons, each representing a Constituency. The voting system currently held in the United Kingdom is the First Past The Post system. In each Constituency, the candidate with the most votes wins, with the other votes for other candidates disregarded. That candidate becomes the Member of Parliament for his/her affiliated party (or indeed, as an independent). The party who obtains on or over 326 of the 650 available seats will have a majority to form a Government. If none of the parties obtain a majority, a Hung Parliament result is declared. The party with most seats will be given the first opportunity to negotiate with other parties to form a Coalition, that may combine the number of seats to form a total majority, as we saw the Conservative and Liberal Democrat parties do after the 2010 General Election.
As of the 2015 General Election, the Conservative party hold 330 seats within the House of Commons (excluding the Speaker).
The Political Parties (in order of seats won at the last Election):
Conservative Party (330 of 650 seats & 36.8% of Voter Share) Leader: Theresa May (Prime Minister)
Labour Party (232 of 650 seats & 30.4% of Voter Share) Leader: Jeremy Corbyn
Scottish National Party (SNP) (56 of 650 seats & 4.7% of Voter Share) Leader: Nicola Sturgeon
Liberal Democrats (8 of 650 seats & 7.9% of Voter Share) Leader: Tim Farron
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) (8 of 650 seats & 0.6% of Voter Share) Leader: Arlene Foster
Sinn Fein (4 of 650 seats ñ 0.6% of Voter Share) Northern Ireland Leader: Michelle O'Neill
Plaid Cymru (3 of 650 seats & 0.6% of Voter Share) Leader: Leanne Wood
Social Democratic & Labour Party (SDLP) (3 of 650 seats & 0.3% of Voter Share) Leader: Colum Eastwood
Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) (2 of 650 seats ñ 0.4% of Voter Share) Leader: Robin Swann
UK Independence Party (UKIP) (1 of 650 seats & 12.6% of Voter Share) Leader: Paul Nuttall
Green Party of England and Wales (1 of 650 seats & 3.8% of Voter Share) Co Leaders: Caroline Lucas, Jonathan Bartley
April 18th - Theresa May announces intention to hold a General Election on 8th June
April 19th - Parliament votes fly 522 to 13 to activate the election clause in the Fixed Term Parliament Act
May 3rd - Parliament will be dissolved
May 4th - Local Elections (separate to the General Election).
May 12th - Submission of Electoral Candidates
May 22nd - Deadline to register to vote (See below!!)
May 23rd (likely) - deadline to apply for a postal vote
May 31st (likely) - deadline to apply for a proxy vote
June 8th - Election Day. Polls will open from 7am until 10pm
REGISTER TO VOTE!
Join Roberto's Prediction League!!
Quick reminder, if anyone would like to join the prediction league for the election, PM me or quote this post and put in your own numbers. Winner gets a bottle of something, probably. Should make election night more fun. I'm keeping track of all predictions on an Excel spreadsheet.
Conservative Party seats:
Green Party seats:
Lib Dem seats:
Plaid Cymru seats:
Independently held seats:
Seats held by other parties:
Labour wipe-out in Scotland?
More Conservative votes than Labour in Scotland?
More Conservative seats than Labour in Wales?*
The Portillo award goes to..?
First resignation of the night?
How many party leaders will resign?
Seat for Nuttall?
Margin of victory by seats:
Margin of victory by votes:
Scoring works as follows: 1 point per correct seat allocation. 10 points per correct bonus question. For margin of victory by seats, 50 points for a perfect answer, lose 1 point per seat away from that perfect answer that you were. For margin of victory by votes, 50 points for a perfect answer (rounded to 100,000), lose one point per 100,000 that you were away from thay perfect answer. Margins will be between party with most seats / votes and the party with the second most seats / votes. Portillo award winner will be decided on the night.
Quote to reveal the Excel spreadsheet, if you want to have a gander at others' predictions.