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Dan27
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(04-19-2017, 06:14 PM)
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Welcome to the UK General Election 2017 OT!



  • Do not attack a poster because of their party affiliation. We are above party partisan politics. Policies should, logically, dictate a poster's party affiliation
  • There is no need to reveal your party affiliation or who you have voted for in the past. If you are feeling pressurized into doing so, please feel free to contact a mod
  • If you are claiming something in an argument, use poll data, ONS/OBR statistics to support your argument
  • Take into consideration the limitations of your data sources and the statistical methods that are employed.
  • The TOS rules will be abided to

Previous related GAF threads:




Our story can be traced back to before the last Election. David Cameron, wanting to secure a Parliamentary majority after five years of Coalition rule with the Liberal Democrats, appeased many Euro-sceptic Conservative voters by including in the Tory manifesto a pledge to hold a referendum on the UK’s membership in the European Union. The Conservative party won an unexpected majority victory (it’s first since 1992) and the Prime Minister was obligated to hold this EU Referendum.

The Referendum was held on 23rd June 2016. The United Kingdom voted by 51.89% to 48.11% to Leave the EU. As a result, David Cameron resigned as Prime Minister and soon after as an MP. Following the turmoil of the Referendum result, the resignations and a leadership election that saw the all other candidates withdraw, Cameron’s own former Home Secretary, Theresa May, was elected new leader of the Conservative Party and thus the UK’s second female Prime Minister. May quickly formed her Cabinet and focused the Tories as “the party of Brexit” and, along with existing trials and tribulations going on in the Labour party, started to gap the opposition in opinion polls.

On Tuesday 18th April, faced with continuing scrutiny on it’s handling of the post Referendum political landscape, exiting the EU and not having an election mandate, Prime Minister Theresa May called for a vote under the Fixed Term Parliamentary Act to allow a UK General Election on the 8th June. This vote, held the day after, was successful by 522 votes to 13 and as such the voters of the United Kingdom will be called upon for the second time in just over two years for a General Election, and the third if the EU Referendum is included.



The Parliament of the United Kingdom is the supreme legislative body of the United Kingdom, British Crown dependancies and British overseas territories. It’s head is Queen Elizabeth II (known as “the Sovereign) and is located at the Palace of Westminster, London. The Parliament consists of an upper house (the House of Lords) and a lower house (the House of Commons). The Sovereign forms the third component of the legislature. Parliament consists of 1455 seats, split between the Lords (805 seats) and Commons (650 seats).

A General Election is the election of all 650 seats in the House of Commons, each representing a Constituency. The voting system currently held in the United Kingdom is the First Past The Post system. In each Constituency, the candidate with the most votes wins, with the other votes for other candidates disregarded. That candidate becomes the Member of Parliament for his/her affiliated party (or indeed, as an independent). The party who obtains on or over 326 of the 650 available seats will have a majority to form a Government. If none of the parties obtain a majority, a Hung Parliament result is declared. The party with most seats will be given the first opportunity to negotiate with other parties to form a Coalition, that may combine the number of seats to form a total majority, as we saw the Conservative and Liberal Democrat parties do after the 2010 General Election.

As of the 2015 General Election, the Conservative party hold 330 seats within the House of Commons (excluding the Speaker).





The Political Parties (in order of seats won at the last Election):


Conservative Party (330 of 650 seats & 36.8% of Voter Share) Leader: Theresa May (Prime Minister)



Labour Party (232 of 650 seats & 30.4% of Voter Share) Leader: Jeremy Corbyn



Scottish National Party (SNP) (56 of 650 seats & 4.7% of Voter Share) Leader: Nicola Sturgeon



Liberal Democrats (8 of 650 seats & 7.9% of Voter Share) Leader: Tim Farron



Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) (8 of 650 seats & 0.6% of Voter Share) Leader: Arlene Foster



Sinn Fein (4 of 650 seats ñ 0.6% of Voter Share) Northern Ireland Leader: Michelle O'Neill



Plaid Cymru (3 of 650 seats & 0.6% of Voter Share) Leader: Leanne Wood



Social Democratic & Labour Party (SDLP) (3 of 650 seats & 0.3% of Voter Share) Leader: Colum Eastwood



Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) (2 of 650 seats ñ 0.4% of Voter Share) Leader: Robin Swann



UK Independence Party (UKIP) (1 of 650 seats & 12.6% of Voter Share) Leader: Paul Nuttall



Green Party of England and Wales (1 of 650 seats & 3.8% of Voter Share) Co Leaders: Caroline Lucas, Jonathan Bartley




April 18th - Theresa May announces intention to hold a General Election on 8th June
April 19th - Parliament votes fly 522 to 13 to activate the election clause in the Fixed Term Parliament Act
May 2nd - Parliament will be dissolved
May 4th - Local Elections (separate to the General Election).
May 12th - Submission of Electoral Candidates
May 22nd - Deadline to register to vote (See below!!)
May 23rd (likely) - deadline to apply for a postal vote
May 31st (likely) - deadline to apply for a proxy vote
June 8th - Election Day. Polls will open from 7am until 10pm








REGISTER TO VOTE!

https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote

Join Roberto's Prediction League!!

Originally Posted by Roberto Larcos

Quick reminder, if anyone would like to join the prediction league for the election, PM me or quote this post and put in your own numbers. Winner gets a bottle of something, probably. Should make election night more fun. I'm keeping track of all predictions on an Excel spreadsheet.

Conservative Party seats:
Green Party seats:
Labour seats:
Lib Dem seats:
Plaid Cymru seats:
SNP seats:
UKIP seats:
Independently held seats:
Seats held by other parties:

BONUS:
Labour wipe-out in Scotland?
More Conservative votes than Labour in Scotland?
More Conservative seats than Labour in Wales?*
The Portillo award goes to..?
First resignation of the night?
How many party leaders will resign?
Seat for Nuttall?
Margin of victory by seats:
Margin of victory by votes:

Scoring works as follows: 1 point per correct seat allocation. 10 points per correct bonus question. For margin of victory by seats, 50 points for a perfect answer, lose 1 point per seat away from that perfect answer that you were. For margin of victory by votes, 50 points for a perfect answer (rounded to 100,000), lose one point per 100,000 that you were away from thay perfect answer. Margins will be between party with most seats / votes and the party with the second most seats / votes. Portillo award winner will be decided on the night.

Quote to reveal the Excel spreadsheet, if you want to have a gander at others' predictions.

Last edited by Dan27; Yesterday at 11:20 PM.
SymbiantXenos
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(04-19-2017, 06:15 PM)
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I'll be voting Labor as previously.
Moosichu
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(04-19-2017, 06:16 PM)
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Vote. Regardless where or who you are, vote!
Hazzuh
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(04-19-2017, 06:16 PM)
Jazzy Geoff
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(04-19-2017, 06:17 PM)
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In!
Zaph
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(04-19-2017, 06:17 PM)
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Flying Toaster
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(04-19-2017, 06:18 PM)
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I am curious to see post election polling statistics on how many people voted. Especially after the Brexit fallout.
Zvonimir Boban
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(04-19-2017, 06:18 PM)
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Originally Posted by Hazzuh

Sums up my mood fairly accurately.
hydrophilic attack
(04-19-2017, 06:19 PM)
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obligatory "fuck FPTP" post

AV wasn't much better to be honest, proportional representation is the GOAT
Plum
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(04-19-2017, 06:19 PM)
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First GE for me! Will I need to re-register if I already did so for the referendum? I haven't moved since then.
Billy_Pilgrim
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(04-19-2017, 06:19 PM)
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StayDead
um wat
(04-19-2017, 06:20 PM)
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Originally Posted by Moosichu

Vote. Regardless where or who you are, vote!

Especially if you don't want the Conservatives to have a majority again! It's so important, now more than ever.
Billy_Pilgrim
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(04-19-2017, 06:21 PM)
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One positive for us Labour masochists is that CLP's aren't able to fuck about with selections, which should deprive our foes of some much fancied mirth and giggling. Some of the lunatics wanting a seat. Horrendous people.
PJV3
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(04-19-2017, 06:21 PM)
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I'm going tactical and voting Lib Dem, hopefully it won't be the orange book Twat trying to make a comeback in the constituency.


Shit! He is, democracy really fucking stinks.
Last edited by PJV3; 04-19-2017 at 06:25 PM.
GeeTeeCee
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(04-19-2017, 06:21 PM)
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And so the battle to see which party continues Britain's Brexit negotiation strategy begins.

tomtom94
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(04-19-2017, 06:23 PM)
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Originally Posted by Billy_Pilgrim

One positive for us Labour masochists is that CLP's aren't able to fuck about with selections, which should deprive our foes of some much fancied mirth and giggling. Some of the lunatics wanting a seat. Horrendous people.

I saw this news and I must confess I couldn't work out what it meant in the grand scheme of things. Isn't it a case that the NEC is currently pro-Corbyn and CLPs are in a number of cases anti?
CCS
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(04-19-2017, 06:23 PM)
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Living in one of the safest Tory seats in the country at least gives me the luxury of voting for whoever I want. Think I'll go Lib Dem because the less votes Corbyn gets the better.
Huw_Dawson
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(04-19-2017, 06:24 PM)
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"...Cameron’s own former Home Secretary, Theresa May, was unanimously elected new member of the Conservative Party and thus the UK’s second female Prime Minister. May quickly formed her Cabinet and focused the Tories as “the party of Brexit” and, along with existing trials and tribulations going on in the Labour party, started to gap the opposition in opinion polls.

On Tuesday 18th April, faced with continuing scrutiny on it’s handling of the post Referendum political landscape, exiting the EU and not having an election mandate, Prime Minister Theresa May called for a vote under the Fixed Term Parliament Act for there to be an early General Election, which she laid out as being on the 8th June. This vote, held the day after, was successful by 522 votes to 13 and as such the voters of the United Kingdom will be called upon for the second time in just over two years."

A couple of fixes to the Story section of the OP.

EDIT: A couple of new points:

The Manchester Gorton by-election has been cancelled.

Labour has ruled out any coalition with the SNP (thus killing any Lab/SNP/Lib fearmonger alliance talk being spat out by the Tory press).

...

Oh, and you probably want to add the Alliance Party to the list of UK parties.

---

Hi there! I'm a Lib Dem member who will be actively campaigning in the London region. I'll be chatting on these threads independently and with my own views on things, but I tend to be rather militantly Lib Dem. 😛

I'll be mostly involved, funnily enough, in a council by-election in Enfield a few weeks before the election.

I'll be voting Lib Dem, and knowing how I get at GE time I'll be insufferably asking for Lib Dem votes here as well.
Last edited by Huw_Dawson; 04-19-2017 at 06:29 PM.
Crab
Famed for his Europa Universalis IV exploits
(04-19-2017, 06:24 PM)
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Your OT is not quite right. Labour has 229 seats, SNP have 54, Lib Dems have 9, UKIP has no seats (which would also move UKIP below the Greens).
Moze
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(04-19-2017, 06:24 PM)
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Vote tactically if you have to. Just make sure the Tories do not get a majority again.
Ogodei
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(04-19-2017, 06:26 PM)
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This election will just be about picking over the corpse of Labour, methinks. Remainers have no reason to vote for them, but they're still too socially liberal for much of the working class base outside of London. Though UKIP should have all the wind out of its sails by now too since the Tories have basically taken up their mantle.
jem0208
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(04-19-2017, 06:27 PM)
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I'm in a fairly close Lib Dem/Conservative constituency so I'm definitely voting Lib Dem.


This is great by the way: http://www.conservatives2017.com/
Last edited by jem0208; 04-19-2017 at 06:30 PM.
Betty
The vision that was Planted in my brain
Does not still remain
(04-19-2017, 06:27 PM)
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May will win and get more power so people can stop whining that she didn't win the right to be Prime Minister.

That's all this is about.
Maledict
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(04-19-2017, 06:27 PM)
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Originally Posted by Billy_Pilgrim

One positive for us Labour masochists is that CLP's aren't able to fuck about with selections, which should deprive our foes of some much fancied mirth and giggling. Some of the lunatics wanting a seat. Horrendous people.

I'm in Kate Hoey's seat. Labour party people round here have been planning to deselect her for a long time. They are not happy.
CCS
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(04-19-2017, 06:30 PM)
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Originally Posted by Maledict

I'm in Kate Hoey's seat. Labour party people round here have been planning to deselect her for a long time. They are not happy.

Might go and campaign there for the Lib Dems. Nothing against Labour, I like the party, but I want every Leaver in the party to have the metaphorical head of their political career put on a spike :P
Huw_Dawson
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(04-19-2017, 06:30 PM)
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Originally Posted by jem0208

I'm in a fairly close Lib Dem/Conservative constituency so I'm definitely voting Lib Dem.

Thank you!

I hope we don't screw up this campaign. 😰
Billy_Pilgrim
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(04-19-2017, 06:31 PM)
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Originally Posted by tomtom94

I saw this news and I must confess I couldn't work out what it meant in the grand scheme of things. Isn't it a case that the NEC is currently pro-Corbyn and CLPs are in a number of cases anti?

In theory yes, but at a time of succinct crises and with a leadership election in the offing at Unite, they will be doing their absolute best to pick the most electable people. The corbyn lot have still failed to get a single one of their nutters selected (which has now lead to legal threats).

A lot of these candidates are going to be union candidates. Mad barry who got deputy chair at the momentum whitewash AGM will not have a hope in hell.
Rktk
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(04-19-2017, 06:31 PM)
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Originally Posted by Betty

May will win and get more power so people can stop whining that she didn't win the right to be Prime Minister.

That's all this is about.

That's not all it's about. It's a killer blow to Labour, it helps her with her Brexit negotiations, it means 5 more Conservative years.
War Peaceman
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(04-19-2017, 06:31 PM)
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Originally Posted by hydrophilic attack

obligatory "fuck FPTP" post

AV wasn't much better to be honest, proportional representation is the GOAT

UKIP would have way more seats. Actually now that I think of it, they have no seats right now.

It is bizarre when you compare vote share and seat share between the SNP, Lib Dems and UKIP.
PJV3
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(04-19-2017, 06:31 PM)
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Originally Posted by Huw_Dawson

Thank you!

I hope we don't screw up this campaign. 😰

Keep your head down and play both sides at the local level, the quirks of the system may reward you.
Sarcastic Poster
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(04-19-2017, 06:32 PM)
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Originally Posted by hydrophilic attack

obligatory "fuck FPTP" post

AV wasn't much better to be honest, proportional representation is the GOAT

The gawd-level voting system. Thanks for giving Ireland it btw Brits.
D4Danger
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(04-19-2017, 06:35 PM)
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We blue it. Again.
Huw_Dawson
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(04-19-2017, 06:37 PM)
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Originally Posted by PJV3

Keep your head down and play both sides at the local level, the quirks of the system may reward you.

We're getting the vast majority of the seats we lost to the Tories back. The question will be how soft Labour are going to be.

We know they're very soft. We've seen that in Gorton.

If we use our new members well and run a competent campaign - which we will, we have an excellent HQ team now - then we should be able to pull of something special. May may still get a majority, but at least folks on here and small l liberals across Britain won't have a totally dire night on Thursday 8th June.

Every Labour seat where we have a functioning party could be in play in a few weeks. It depends on how badly Corbyn does.
Breakage
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(04-19-2017, 06:37 PM)
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Is voting for Labour even worth it? (or would my vote be better placed with the Lib Dems?)
AHA-Lambda
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(04-19-2017, 06:38 PM)
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Originally Posted by Hazzuh

Pretty much. Just when I think politics in this country can't get worse.

Originally Posted by Breakage

Is voting for Labour even worth it? (or would my vote be better placed with the Lib Dems?)

Well if you're Scottish please vote SNP :P

Seriously though, if I lived in England I wouldn't know who to vote for - Labour by default I guess =/

EDIT: actually much better advice down below :P

Seriously though, anything but Tory =/
Last edited by AHA-Lambda; 04-19-2017 at 06:42 PM.
FliXFantatier
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(04-19-2017, 06:39 PM)
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Slaughtering grounds.
D4Danger
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(04-19-2017, 06:39 PM)
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Originally Posted by Breakage

Is voting for Labour even worth it?

They're still the largest opposition party. It's not that bad.
Billy_Pilgrim
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(04-19-2017, 06:39 PM)
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Originally Posted by Breakage

Is voting for Labour even worth it? (or would my vote be better placed with the Lib Dems?)

Yes. This is the race for second place. No matter what, the Labour party is still best positioned to get rid of the tories now and in the near future.

Corbyn won't be around forever. The knives are already being sharpened. The knifiest of the knives.
RedSparrows
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(04-19-2017, 06:39 PM)
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Looking forward to the 'Conservatives' getting an even bigger mandate for ideological upheaval and constitutional change.
King_Moc
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(04-19-2017, 06:39 PM)
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Originally Posted by Breakage

Is voting for Labour even worth it? (or would my vote be better placed with the Lib Dems?)

Look at how the votes went in your constituency last time. In mine it was something like, 16,000 tory, 12,000 Labour, 1,500 Lib Dem. So there's no point in me voting for anything other than Labour.
Crab
Famed for his Europa Universalis IV exploits
(04-19-2017, 06:40 PM)
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Originally Posted by CCS

Might go and campaign there for the Lib Dems. Nothing against Labour, I like the party, but I want every Leaver in the party to have the metaphorical head of their political career put on a spike :P

You do realize that having less prominent Leavers in Labour is a worse thing for the party's electoral prospects than it is better, right?
Breakage
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(04-19-2017, 06:41 PM)
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Originally Posted by King_Moc

Look at how the votes went in your constituency last time. In mine it was something like, 16,000 tory, 12,000 Labour, 1,500 Lib Dem. So there's no point in me voting for anything other than Labour.

Cool...This is my first time voting in a GE. The last time I voted was in the EU ref.

Originally Posted by Billy_Pilgrim

Yes. This is the race for second place. No matter what, the Labour party is still best positioned to get rid of the tories now and in the near future.

Corbyn won't be around forever. The knives are already being sharpened. The knifiest of the knives.

I see. Well...I'll be voting for Labour then.
Linkstrikesback
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(04-19-2017, 06:42 PM)
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hydrophilic attack
(04-19-2017, 06:42 PM)
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Originally Posted by Breakage

Is voting for Labour even worth it? (or would my vote be better placed with the Lib Dems?)

Depends on your district. Choose between Labour and Lib. Dem. (or SNP or Greens where applicable) based on whichever has the best shot in your district. This election is all about not allowing the Tory majority to grow even larger
Syder
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(04-19-2017, 06:43 PM)
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Originally Posted by D4Danger

We blue it. Again.

Pretty much.
Huw_Dawson
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(04-19-2017, 06:43 PM)
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Tactical voting in the Left will be a big thing this election unless Corbyn's Labour implodes.

And this is something that could happen.

Oh yeah, don't forget:

The electoral expenses scandal will be coming to a head in late May, close to polling day.

If 30 Tory MPs got arrested for election fraud a couple of weeks before polling day, after May has just gone on record standing beside her MPs...

In Scotland, I'd encourage you to vote for the party you identify most with, as it's basically irrelevant in this election - the SNP are not going to lose seats to Tories.

BUT they might lose Edinburgh West, and a few other seats, to us. It depends on if there's a major Lib Dem surge or not.
Last edited by Huw_Dawson; 04-19-2017 at 06:46 PM.
TimmmV
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(04-19-2017, 06:44 PM)
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Originally Posted by CCS

Might go and campaign there for the Lib Dems. Nothing against Labour, I like the party, but I want every Leaver in the party to have the metaphorical head of their political career put on a spike :P

+1

Was thinking about doing the same for my MP too, but unfortunately opposition for him is pretty thin :(

PJV3
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(04-19-2017, 06:45 PM)
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Originally Posted by hydrophilic attack

Depends on your district. Choose between Labour and Lib. Dem. (or SNP or Greens where applicable) based on whichever has the best shot in your district. This election is all about not allowing the Tory majority to grow even larger

I imagine May would be damaged pretty badly if she doesn't increase it by much, expectations for Corbyn are so fucking low it would be a humiliation.
Izuna
Junior Member
(04-19-2017, 06:46 PM)
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Originally Posted by Breakage

Is voting for Labour even worth it? (or would my vote be better placed with the Lib Dems?)

I implore you to vote lib Dems.
Breakage
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(04-19-2017, 06:47 PM)
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Originally Posted by hydrophilic attack

Depends on your district. Choose between Labour and Lib. Dem. (or SNP or Greens where applicable) based on whichever has the best shot in your district. This election is all about not allowing the Tory majority to grow even larger

I live in a Labour area in London. Voting in a GE is new to me - I never cared about politics or voting until the EU ref. I'll definitely be using my voting power from now on.

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